Gordon G. Chang
China has never been more trade-dependent in its history. Xi Jinping's only hope for an economy that is probably contracting is to increase exports. He knows — or should know — that he is in no position to disrupt international commerce.
Xi apparently believes that a high degree of tension is in his personal interest because continual confrontation would prevent political adversaries from challenging or even deposing him.... Any incident, therefore, could spiral out of control.
The United States has treaty obligations to defend two likely victims of Chinese aggression — Japan and the Philippines — and has a moral obligation and many practical reasons to defend Taiwan. As a practical matter, once one country in America's treaty network gets attacked, all countries in the network end up fighting.
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