8 March 2026

Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran?

Ravi Agrawal

Intense fighting is underway in the Middle East. Early on Feb. 28, Israel and the United States struck a range of sites across Iran. It later emerged that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, was killed as bombs rained down on his compound. But both before and after the confirmation of that news, Tehran shot volleys of missiles at Israel, suggesting a command-and-control structure that operates even in the top leadership’s absence. Iran is also attacking several other countries in the region, particularly Gulf states that host U.S. military bases such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

How will the war end? How do each of Iran, Israel, and the United States define success, and how different are their respective thresholds for pain? On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran and the Middle East, a former senior advisor in the U.S. State Department, and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

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