8 March 2026

Race to the Bottom: Who's Winning the Missile War in the Middle East?

Fabian Hoffmann

In the early hours of 28 February 2026, Operation Epic Fury commenced with large-scale U.S. and Israeli air strikes against Iranian military, command, missile, and infrastructure targets.

Since then, the United States and Israel have conducted extensive operations against Iran, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes against U.S. bases, Israel, and regional neighbours. This post offers an initial assessment of the missile war, which has defined the early stages of this conflict, in terms of missile and interceptor availability and its implications for Ukraine.

The race to the bottom

The central military dynamic between Israel and the United States on the one hand and Iran on the other can be understood as a race to the bottom. Iran is seeking to deplete regional missile defence arsenals while inflicting damage. In contrast, the United States and Israel are attempting to locate and destroy Iranian transporter erector launchers (TELs) before they can fire, while also degrading command and control and Iranian missile production capacity.

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