Ian Bremmer
Three weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the list of losers is unusually long. Iran is getting devastated. The United States is trapped in an asymmetric conflict it can't exit. Gulf states are absorbing infrastructure damage they never signed up for. The developing world is facing food and energy crises. I could keep going.
Washington and Tehran may yet declare victory, but the biggest geopolitical winner is sitting in Moscow, and he didn’t have to do anything but watch.
President Vladimir Putin couldn’t have timed this better. Russia's budget was in crisis heading into March. Oil and gas revenues had collapsed by roughly 50% year-on-year by February due to US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, declining purchases from India and China, and depressed energy prices. The Kremlin blew through nearly its entire full-year budget deficit target in just the first two months of 2026 and was preparing 10% cuts to non-essential spending – everything but military and social outlays. Sustaining the Ukraine war meant making tough choices.
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