China faces a significant demographic decline, with its fertility rate continuing to slump despite policy changes like allowing two children in 2015 and three in 2021. RAND researchers project China could end this century with 786 million fewer people, impacting its military security by needing better recruits for a technologically advanced force, and its economic security due to an aging, shrinking workforce increasing pension and healthcare costs.
This demographic shift also threatens regime security, creating tension between older and disillusioned younger generations. The United States, also experiencing falling fertility rates, can learn from China's missteps, particularly its focus on lowering barriers for those who already desire children rather than solely trying to convince more people to want them. High housing costs, lack of childcare, and career concerns are common barriers in both nations. Globally, over half of countries are below the replacement rate, with the U.S. hitting a record low fertility rate in 2025. The United Nations anticipates global population numbers will peak in the second half of this century before declining.
No comments:
Post a Comment