Donald Trump's "excursion to Iran," despite its smaller scale compared to the Vietnam War with only 13 US casualties, is widely perceived as a defeat and a potential geopolitical turning point for the United States. This conflict, viewed as ill-conceived due to confused objectives and bad planning, confirmed cheap drones as a significant "leveller" in modern warfare and depleted US missile stores.
The war's international consequences are projected to be more lasting than Vietnam's, signaling the collapse of Israel's 20-year Iran strategy and prompting Gulf monarchies to reassess their geopolitical relationships, rejecting normalization with Israel. The fallout could also cause electoral instability in Europe and deliver a "fatal blow" to the US-led international order. For Iran, the conflict has led to ideological revitalisation, discredited foreign military intervention, and repaired its deterrence strategy, highlighting the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
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