The Trump administration is threatening military action against Cuba, imposing a near-total oil blockade and expanded sanctions against government entities and officials, including GAESA. These measures have deterred foreign investors like Hapag Lloyd and Iberostar, leading to economic disaster and convincing Havana's leaders that a U.S. military assault is imminent.
However, the Cuban government, deeply entrenched for 67 years with dispersed authority across the Communist Party Politburo, presidency, and armed forces, is unlikely to yield to coercion. An effort to unseat them would likely result in a protracted, bloody insurgency, as Cuba's "War of All Peoples" doctrine prepares for irregular resistance against an occupying force, despite its decrepit military. Instead of force, the U.S. should pursue substantive bilateral negotiations, offering economic relief for pro-market reforms and political openings, and leveraging its position to empower Cuban citizens.
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