China's expanding defence and security presence beyond the First Island Chain, across the Southwest Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Australia's maritime approaches, has reshaped regional dynamics over the last decade. Using a growing bluewater navy, paramilitary forces, and policing cooperation, China aims for "normalisation," where its access is expected and influence embedded.
In the Southwest Pacific, China's approach is strategic, focusing on policing cooperation and recent hard power demonstrations to isolate Taiwan and diminish US strategic potential in a major conflict. The Indian Ocean saw China establish a PLA Navy far-seas capability due to deep energy dependence, evolving from counter-piracy to submarine deployments, a Djibouti base in 2017, exercises with Pakistan and Sri Lanka, increased arms sales, and dual-use infrastructure at Gwadar and Hambantota. In Australia's near region, China's security engagement shifted from confidence-building to an aggressive stance under Xi Jinping, normalising proximity and demonstrating high-end combat power. These shifts also create strategic opportunities for democratic partners.
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