Enduring rivalries between states persist for generations or transform into cooperation, a phenomenon explored by the "Rivalry Stability Range" framework. This framework addresses why similar shocks, such as wars or territorial settlements, yield different outcomes, contrasting the persistent India-Pakistan rivalry with the transformed Franco-German relationship. The author posits that rivalries can absorb pressure within a bounded range without fundamentally changing their character.
Rivalry Tipping Points (RTPs) are major disruptions—including system-wide wars, shifts in systemic polarity, territorial reconfiguration, national independence processes, or civil wars—that reconfigure the strategic environment. However, RTPs alone do not guarantee change; transformation occurs when multiple pressures reinforce each other, weakening the rivalry's foundations, exemplified by the post-1945 Franco-German shift.
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