Europe is increasingly preparing for its future security with diminishing U.S. assistance, positioning Ukraine as the linchpin of the continent’s defense against Russia. As Washington’s security guarantee weakens, European policymakers are improvising, exploring options like invoking the EU’s Article 42.7 and discussing the French nuclear arsenal for deterrence.
A Council on Foreign Relations exercise, set in 2029 with an isolationist U.S. and a brittle Ukraine cease-fire, demonstrated Ukraine's critical role as a bulwark. Participants rejected Russian demands and relied on Ukraine for offensive counteractions and eastern flank defense, recognizing that if Ukraine fell, Europe would be next. Ukraine's battle-hardened conventional army, advanced drone, air defense, and AI capabilities are deemed indispensable. Europe provides approximately 2 billion euros monthly in military aid and 90 billion euros in financial support, with drone-related funds quadrupling to 1.6 billion euros this year. This reliance strengthens Ukraine's demand for full EU accession, as President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted at the G-7 summit.
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