Tokenpolitik: How the United States Can Compete with China to Build the Global AI Stack

CSIS | Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan

The United States and China are entering a new phase of strategic competition centered on controlling the global artificial intelligence infrastructure stack. Beijing is deploying massive state backing, including a $295 billion AI infrastructure plan for 2026 and low-cost open-weight models distributed globally through Huawei networks. This technological rivalry extends beyond frontier software into a multi-layered industrial supply chain encompassing energy grids, semiconductor fabrication, datacenters, and token generation.

To counter Chinese expansion in the Global South, Washington has launched the American AI Exports Program alongside bilateral financing through the US International Development Finance Corporation. However, these isolated initiatives lack a unified economic and security architecture to effectively rival Beijing’s integrated Digital Silk Road. Adopting a grand strategy of tokenpolitik would enable Washington to coordinate interagency financing and private sector deployment, securing vital compute clusters across key regions such as the South Caucasus while establishing Western technical standards.

Comment

Exporting an integrated compute architecture requires a sustained manufacturing throughput across hyper-specialised supply chains that extends far beyond software licensing. Beijing leverages state-subsidised foundries and local supply ecosystems to package Huawei Ascend hardware directly with municipal power concessions in target states. Through initiatives like Pax Silica, American efforts rely instead on coordinating decentralised commercial vendors whose capital expenditure cycles operate independently of state financing timelines. This structural divergence creates an asymmetry where Chinese state financing can rapidly install physical computing hardware ahead of commercial venture capital deployments.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which mechanism proves more decisive when competing for computing footprint in host nations — the rapid deployment of state-subsidised Huawei Ascend hardware packages or the long-term capital guarantees offered through Pax Silica?

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