2 September 2026

Exclusive: The Dam Without Power: Pakistan cancels the 4,500-megawatt power component of Diamer-Bhasha Dam.

Brief

Pakistan has cancelled the 4,500-megawatt power generation component of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam following internal policy decisions revealed in a leaked Economic Affairs Division document. The decision strips the mega-infrastructure project of its primary hydroelectric capability, leaving the facility strictly as a water storage reservoir. Independent Power Producers exerted intense lobbying pressure to halt the power generation segment.

Commercial vendors successfully protected private market share against cheaper state hydro generation. This outcome underscores severe governance friction within national energy planning. The power infrastructure may never be built. Official promises to construct the energy generation facilities during a later phase face widespread skepticism from industry insiders. Without cheap hydroelectricity, the state remains bound to expensive thermal power contracts and unsustainable capacity payments. Cancelling the energy generation component severely degrades long-term grid stability while significantly worsening federal fiscal exposure under existing private power purchase agreements.

Comment

The cancellation of the 4,500-megawatt hydel facility at the Diamer-Bhasha Dam demonstrates how commercial cartels distort sovereign energy planning. Yielding to private pressure preserves high-tariff generation contracts for thermal Independent Power Producers operating across the Indus River basin. This priority shifts severe financial burdens directly onto Pakistan's Economic Affairs Division while sacrificing cheap public base-load capacity.

This institutional friction operates through rigid take-or-pay obligations managed under Water and Power Development Authority contract frameworks. By blocking state-run hydro integration at Diamer-Bhasha, thermal operators lock federal expenditure into dollar-denominated capacity payments regardless of grid demand.

Strategic Question for Discussion
How does reliance on take-or-pay thermal contracts affect the long-term solvency of the Water and Power Development Authority when major public infrastructure projects like the Diamer-Bhasha Dam are stripped of their generation capacity?
The pattern suggests that prioritizing private capacity payments over state-owned hydro projects entrenches structural debt within Pakistan's power sector. Sacrificing the generation capacity at the Diamer-Bhasha Dam exposes federal fiscal policy to persistent currency devaluation and thermal fuel price volatility. Consequently, sovereign energy planning remains subordinate to commercial contract guarantees.
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