Kaine Is a Solid Choice for Clinton, But What About the Left?

Daniel R. DePetris

July 22, 2016

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It’s official: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has chosen “boring” Tim Kaine as her running-mate. But it just so happens that this boring junior senator from Virginia is a political winner. Sen. Kaine has never lost an election in his life, and he has been in the political arena for quite some time.

Kaine’s resume is about as long as an Ivy League-schooled intern in Washington who embellishes every single accomplishment or award that he or she won in college. But in the case of Kaine, the resume is genuine and bursting with experience on both sides of the executive-legislative divide.

First elected to the Richmond’s city council in 1994, he quickly rose up the ranks of Virginia politics over the next two decades. In just twenty-two years time, Kaine was a councilman, the Mayor of Richmond, the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, the Governor of Virginia, and Senator of Virginia — a winning streak, mind you, that happened in a state that is historically Republican in ideology.

The political world is not shaking from Hillary’s VP announcement. You could see the appointment of Tim Kaine from miles away; he was frequently cited by Clinton allies inside and outside the campaign as a solid and reliable choice who could pick up the reigns and govern during a time of crisis. Hillary Clinton likes workhorses, not showhorses, and Kaine is definitely a workhorse — a bipartisan one at that. He is usually a participatory in some bipartisan grouping in the U.S. Senate hoping to get something pragmatic done. On immigration reform, he was a supporter of what the “Gang of Eight” was trying to do. And just a month ago, he partnered up with four Republicans, three Democrats, and one independenton a gun control measure that would make it more difficult for those on the No-Fly List to acquire firearms.

Canadian or Chinese? Foreign Citizenship Brought Into Question

By Cal Wong

July 20, 2016

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Canadians of Hong Kong descent now have another consideration when traveling to China. Late last month two teenagers born and raised in Canada were denied 10-year visas to China based on the fact that their parents were born in Hong Kong. Perhaps more alarmingly for the hundreds of thousands of Hongkongers who have fled to the safe harbor of Canada, and other democracy-friendly nations, the teens were told that they must travel to China as Chinese nationals.

These are not standalone cases either. Hong Kong Chinese language media have reported that a number of first generation Canadians, who were born in Hong Kong, are being forced into the same situation; and the Hong Kong-born, Australian author of this article has also experienced the same treatment by Chinese visa authorities.

Ottawa is now querying Beijing over these recent cases, and have asked China to clarify any changes they have made to visa requirements and migration laws. Canadian Member of Parliament Jenny Kwan, who was born in Hong Kong, said she pressed Foreign Minister Stephane Dion, urging him to look into the visa situation.Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

“The change in practice should be of grave concern to Canadians; after all, a Canadian is a Canadian. As such, should all Canadians not be treated the same?” Kwan said.

China's Secret Weapon in the South China Sea: Cyber Attacks

By Anni Piiparinen

July 22, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/chinas-secret-weapon-in-the-south-china-sea-cyber-attacks/

Despite China’s great power aspirations, its cyber warriors threw a fit after losing a legal battle to the Philippines in The Hague. Within hours of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s unanimous rebuke of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea last week, at least 68 national and local government websites in the Philippines were knocked offline in a massive distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack. This is not the first time the landmark legal dispute over the South China Sea has flared up in cyberspace. Last summer, Chinese hackers allegedly breached the court’s servers during a hearing on the territorial dispute, leaving anyone interested in the landmark legal case at risk of data theft. Last fall, Jason Healey and I predicted that “the Philippines (and its U.S. allies) should […] start preparing now for a massive digital tantrum by Chinese patriot hackers if the ruling […] goes against the Middle Kingdom.” And while the Philippine government has not yet publicly assigned blame for the most recent attacks, context and timing serve as damning evidence.

The crippling DDoS attacks against Filipino government networks began in the afternoon of July 12, as the court in The Hague announced its sweeping ruling rejecting China’s historic territorial claims in the case brought by the Philippines. The attacks that ensued spanned over several days and targeted key government agencies, including the Department of Foreign Affairs, the Department of National Defense, the Central Bank, and the Presidential Management Staff, along with a medical center and smaller local government units. In addition, some local government portals were defaced with popular Anonymous insignia and a message signed by “the Chinese Government.”

Libyan Military Forces Still Trying to Oust ISIS Fighters From City of Sirte

July 22, 2016

Libyan forces launch new assault to oust Islamic State from Sirte

Forces aligned with Libya’s U.N.-backed government fought fierce exchanges with Islamic State militants in Sirte on Thursday in which 13 of their fighters were killed and more than 110 wounded, officials said.

The government-backed forces have pinned militants back to a small area in the centre of the coastal city after advancing on the Islamic State stronghold in May.

But they have faced stiff resistance from the several hundred militants thought to be still holed up in Sirte, suffering casualties from snipers and explosive devices.

On Thursday the government-backed forces said in statements that they were advancing on two fronts after bombarding Islamic State positions from the air and the ground at dawn. They said there was heavy fighting in the Dollar neighbourhood and around the port.

The forces are mainly made up of fighters from the city of Misrata, though other western Libyan towns and cities have also contributed men.

They have received some support from the U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, but many fighters feel let down by the government and its Western allies, saying that a lack of medical support, equipment and ammunition has hindered their progress.

The Upgrading of Tibet Military Command and the Train

By Claude Arpi

23 Jul , 2016

In May 2015, the Chinese Government published a White Paper (WP) on Defence, putting forward new objectives for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Beijing announced that the PLA’s military strategy was to ‘win informationized local wars’.

China Military Online, a website affiliated to the PLA explained: “The WP systematically expounded on the Chinese military’s missions and strategic tasks in the new era”. It spoke of “making preparation for military struggle shall be focused on winning local wars in conditions of modern technology.”

Highlighting maritime military struggle (in the South China Sea for example), the WP said “the traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned.”

Mao’s old view of ‘an Army of peasants’ is dead and gone. In the years to come, the Chinese Navy and the Air Force are bound to take a more preponderant place in Beijing’s defence strategy, but it does not mean that China is going to forget its land neighbours, first and foremost India.

In May 2016, The Global Times announced that the status of the Tibet Military Command (TMC) facing India from Arunachal Pradesh to Ladakh was to be raised. It was part of the in-depth reforms instituted by President Xi Jinping, who is also the Chairman of the all-powerful Central Military Commission (CMC).

Quoting an unknown ‘analyst’, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece reported: “By raising the TMC’s authority level and putting it under the jurisdiction of the PLA Army (ground forces), China continues to strengthen its military presence in the autonomous region and aims to allow the military command to shoulder more combat assignments.”

Assignments against whom?

HAS THE ISLAMIC STATE ABANDONED ITS PROVINCIAL MODEL IN THE PHILIPPINES?

CHARLIE WINTER

JULY 22, 2016

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Two weeks ago, the Islamic State’s Furqan Foundation released its first video in over a year. Entitled “Structure of the Khilafah,” this typically overproduced piece of propaganda dives deep into how Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s organization operates.

There is much of interest in the video, but one aspect of it that stands out in particular is a portion that zooms in on the technicalities behind the Islamic State’s provinces, of which, the narrator asserts, there are 35: 19 in Iraq and Syria, and 16 elsewhere. Intriguingly, the video omits mention of Bahrain Province, which claimed an attack on a Shia mosque in Manama in October 2015, and Sahil Province, which was responsible for the attacks in Syria’s coastal cities in May 2016. It also fails to mention any of the areas from which the Islamic State has been forced to withdraw, likeIdlib Province, as well as those within which it claims to be present but hasn’t established provincial affiliates in, likeSomalia, Indonesia, Tunisia, and the Philippines.

The Furqan Foundation media team likely conceived of this video as a way to further fetishize the caliphate’s administrative arsenal and foster its cult of institutions. However, through it, they inadvertently draw attention to the fact that their organization’s momentum has dramatically slowed. Indeed, as Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi hascommented, the video presents its viewers with a glaring reminder that there has been no real geographical expansion since June 2015, when the Caucasus Province was ratified.

Ukrainian Security Services Accused of Torture and Other Abuses

Andrew E. Kramer

July 22, 2016

Ukraine’s Security Services and Rebels Are Said to Be Equals in Torture

MOSCOW — A report by two leading human rights groups released on Thursday accusesUkraine’s Western-backed security services of practicing abuse and torture in a manner similar to that of the rebel groups they are fighting.

In the report about disappearances and torture in the Ukraine war, titled “You Don’t Exist,” Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International document harrowing abuse by both sides, including waterboarding and the use of electrical shocks.

Ukraine has been battling Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east since 2014, with fighting grinding on despite a cease-fire. This week, seven Ukrainian soldiers died in a single day of fighting.

The front line zigzags through several towns, so that worries about spies and surreptitious artillery spotters among the civilian population run high in the armies of both sides, and abuse follows, the report said.

“People in eastern Ukraine who are being seized and hidden away by the warring sides are at the mercy of their captors,” Tanya Lokshina, a researcher with Human Rights Watch and one of the authors of the report, said in a statement.

“It is never legal or justified to seize people off the streets, cut them off from contact with family and lawyers, and beat and abuse them,” she said.

A Reality Check From America's Spy Chief

By David Ignatius

July 22, 2016

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WASHINGTON -- America's top spymaster offered contrarian assessments of some key issues -- warning against "hyping" the threat posed by the Syrian terror group Jabhat al-Nusra, cautioning against administration plans to share intelligence with Russia on Syrian targets, and questioning Turkish claims that last Friday's coup was organized by a cleric living in America.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper made the characteristically blunt comments in an interview Wednesday. They expanded on his warning in a May interview that the U.S. can't by itself "fix" the problems of the turbulent Middle East. Clapper's skeptical view is shared by President Obama and has reinforced the administration's wariness about committing military force in Syria.

Clapper began the wide-ranging discussion by questioning the recent "groundswell" of concern about Jabhat al-Nusra. He said the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate poses only a "nascent" danger to the U.S. homeland and "doesn't approach the threat" posed by the Islamic State. Jabhat al-Nusra's ability to attack the U.S. and Europe is "aspirational," rather than "imminent," he said, describing as overly "strident" recent press reports about increasing evidence of external plots by the group.

Clapper's skepticism about Jabhat al-Nusra is matched by his wariness of collaborating with Russia in strikes against the group, an approach Obama has tentatively approved. "I've expressed my reservations about, for example, sharing intelligence with [the Russians] ... which they desperately want, I think, to exploit -- to learn what they can about our sources and methods and tactics and techniques and procedures," he said.

That Brexit apocalypse? It just isn’t happening

Liam Halligan

23 July 2016

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/that-brexit-apocalypse-it-just-isnt-happening/

It has been a month since the UK voted to leave the European Union — but something is missing. Where is the economic collapse? What of EUpocalypse Now? Where is the Brexageddon that we were promised? To the shock of many — not least business titans who bankrolled the Remain campaign — the instant collapse doesn’t seem to be happening. The UK economy is, for now at least, taking Brexit in its stride.

The oft-predicted job losses? During the three weeks from 23 June, job listings were up 150,000 compared to the same period last year according to Reed Group, a recruitment consultant. ‘That’s an 8 per cent rise,’ says James Reed, its chairman. ‘The vote hasn’t affected things — people are still hiring.’

How about all those international banks quitting the City of London? Last week the US banking thoroughbred Wells Fargo forked out £300 million for a new world headquarters — in London. Since Brexit, the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have hailed the City as ‘one of the most attractive places in the world to do business’, citing its ‘stable legal system’ and ‘deep liquid capital markets unmatched anywhere in Europe’.

But surely leaving the EU is so rash it’ll spark financial collapse? While UK stocks took a hit straight after the referendum, the FTSE 100 share index is now 6 per cent higher than before we voted. Even the FTSE 250, comprised of smaller, more UK-centric firms, has almost completed its recovery.

Freddy Gray and Scott McConnell discuss the American tragedy with Isabel Hardman on this week’s Spectator podcast:

Terry Glavin: How the Brexit vote could lead to a united Ireland

Terry Glavin 
July 20, 2016
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DUBLIN — At Eason’s book shop on O’Connell Street, at the Gutter Bookshop in Temple Bar and at Hodges Figgis on Dawson Street, the windows are filled with all the new titles on the Easter Rebellion of 1916. And for €20, you can take a guided whirlwind tour, in a truck fitted out in military style, of the key landmarks of the insurrection that marked the birth of the Irish Republic and have yourself photographed with “authentic period replica weapons and equipment.” The 1916 Freedom Tour takes about an hour.

Then there are the innumerable academic symposia, the television documentaries, the solemn commemorative ceremonies and the parades. This year in Ireland, everything was supposed to be about history, but now, out of the blue, the United Kingdom’s June 23 referendum on the European Union has dragged the thorniest questions about Anglo-Irish relations, and Irish national unity, straight out of the past, directly into the present, the possible and the political. On Tuesday, this was the banner headline in the Irish Independent: Get Ready for a United Ireland.

Of the many unanticipated consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the EU, none was so ill considered as the potential damage a Leave vote would do to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the settlement that ended decades of sectarian violence and reconciled a 26-county Irish republic with British sovereignty in the U.K.’s six Ulster counties. The agreement, which allowed for shared citizenship and eliminated all the heavily guarded checkpoints on the absurd border between North and South, was predicated in no small measure on shared EU membership. Now, everything’s up in the air again.

In Northern Ireland, where a majority voted to remain within the EU, there has been such a run on requests for Irish passports that Ulster’s General Register Office, which handles births, deaths and marriages, has had to suspend its ordinary operations to handle the spike in applications. Unless some other legal route opens up, there is only one way for those in the U.K.’s six Ulster counties to get back into Europe, and it’s through the Irish Republic.

Trump and the Sultan

Thomas L. Friedman 
JULY 20, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/opinion/trump-and-the-sultan.html?_r=0

Turkey is a long way from Cleveland, where the Republicans are holding their presidential convention. But I’d urge you to study the recent failed military coup against Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. America is not Turkey — but in terms of personality and political strategy, Erdogan and Donald Trump were separated at birth.

And the drama playing out in Turkey today is the story of just how off track a once successful country can get when a leader who demonizes all his rivals and dabbles in crazy conspiracy theories comes to believe that he alone is The Man — the only one who can make his country great again — and ensconces himself in power.

Let’s start with Erdogan, who was prime minister from 2003 to 2014, but then maneuvered himself into the previously symbolic role of president and got all key powers shifted to that position. I confess that when I first heard the news of the July 15 coup attempt, my first instinct was to consult that great foreign policy expert Miss Manners, The Washington Post’s etiquette columnist, because I was asking myself, “What is the right response when bad things happen to bad people?”

“Dear Miss Manners: I instinctively oppose military coups against democratically elected governments, like the one in Turkey. But am I a bad person if part of me felt that Turkey’s president had it coming?”

Anyone who has been following Turkey closely knows that Erdogan has been mounting a silent, drip-by-drip coup of his own against Turkish democracy for years — jailing reporters, hounding rivals with giant tax bills, reviving an internal war against Turkish Kurds to stoke nationalist passions to propel his efforts to grab more powers — and by generally making himself into a modern-day sultan for life.

Has Satellite Imagery Found a New North Korean Nuclear Processing and Enrichment Site?

July 22, 2016

Exclusive: Possible early North Korean nuclear site found - report

A U.S. policy institute said it may have located a secret facility used by North Korea in the early stages of building its program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, which if confirmed would be critical to the success of any future nuclear deal, according to a report seen by Reuters on Thursday.

The report by the Institute for Science and International Security said there has always been doubt about whether North Korea has disclosed all of its nuclear facilities. Confirming their location would be critical to the success of any future agreement to freeze and dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, it said.

The site, 27 miles (43 km) from the nuclear complex at Yongbyon, may have played a key role in development of centrifuges that refine uranium hexafluoride gas into low-enriched and highly enriched uranium, the report said.

“It is necessary to identify where North Korea enriches uranium and part of that is understanding where it has done it in the past,” said David Albright, the institute’s president.

What may once have been the early centrifuge research and development facility is believed to have been inside an aircraft part factory inside a mountain next to Panghyon Air Base. It was located using commercial satellite imagery, the report said.

The Gang That Can’t Shoot Straight: The Shoddy U.S. Covert Action Operations in Syria

Austin Carson and Michael Poznansky

July 22, 2016

The Logic for (Shoddy) U.S. Covert Action in Syria

By most accounts, America’s efforts to covertly train and supply moderate rebels in Syria aren’t going so well. Apart from the obvious (Assad is still firmly entrenched in power and continuing to receive ever-growing external support), The New York Times recently reported that some arms provided by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Saudi Arabia haven’t quite reached their intended targets. According to the report, some individuals in Jordan’s intelligence bureau — ostensibly partnering to funnel weapons to Assad’s opponents — stole weapons destined for U.S.-backed rebels and instead sold them on the black market.

This is not the first time an American-led covert operation has gone awry, and it certainly won’t be the last. Consider Operation Cyclone, the covert U.S. arms pipeline to the mujahideen in their fight against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan throughout the 1980s. Long held up as a success story in Cold War proxy warfare, the mujahideen – supported by the United States, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia – fell on each other after the Soviets retreated, creating an environment where al Qaeda could later thrive. This White House is certainly no stranger to these lessons of history. During early debates on Syria policy, Obama commissioned a study on the CIA’s track record in covert aid that concluded such efforts seldom work.

What, then, is the rationale for U.S. policy in Syria? Why has the White House continued to draw on the tool of covert military aid despite its shoddy track record? Rather than praise or condemn the Obama administration’s approach, our goal is to shed light on some of the considerations that have driven what’s going on and why by drawing on our own research on past covert aid programs. Our findings suggest that escalation dynamics and unique reputational concerns help to explain why the Obama White House finds itself stuck with a covert military aid program of questionable efficacy and impact.

The Origins and Evolution of “Timber Sycamore”

Olympic Showdown Between Russia and the West

Rachel BaumanBrad William Hummel

July 22, 2016

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A state-sponsored coverup of widespread doping involving an undercover FSB—the KGB successor agency—agent furtively passing clean urine samples through a hole in the wall sounds like a subplot of a Cold War-era thriller. But according to a report commissioned by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), this is part of what happened from late 2011 to August 2015 in the Russian Federation, leading the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) to ban Russian track and field athletes from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. The investigation was spurred by former director of Russia’s antidoping laboratory Grigory Rodchenkov’s assertion that he had administered performance-enhancing drugs to Russian athletes before the 2014 Sochi Olympics with the help of the FSB. The IAAF believes that banning the entire country's track and field team is imperative since the doping system has affected the vast majority of athletes representing and training in Russia. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has banned all Russian sports ministry officials from the 2016 Games and has advised other winter-sports organizations to avoid patronizing Russia for the time being. The 2018 FIFA World Cup, to be hosted by Russia, will not be affected.

Will Brexit Repeat Greece's Tragedy?

Shiping Tang

July 22, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-brexit-repeat-greeces-tragedy-17081?page=show

Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury John Connally once told a group of European finance ministers that “the dollar is our currency, but your problem.” One June 23, the British people paraphrased Connolly almost too perfectly in their decision to leave the EU: “Exiting the European Union is our decision, but your (and our) problem.” On June 24, the world market reacted to the British public’s Brexit decision with a massive sell-off, with one estimate putting the total loss of financial asset of the black Friday amounted to more than $2 trillion, making it the worst day in world history. While the short-run and long-run impact of the Brexit referendum cannot be precisely estimated, it is certainly going to be far-reaching. One thing is for sure: the Brexit referendum result won’t in any way help an already shaky world economy regain its footing.

To some extent, the Greek referendum on the European Central Bank and IMF-backed bailout package on July 5, 2015 was a preview of what was to come with the Brexit referendum. In the Greek referendum, the Greeks voted to reject a more lenient bailout package and caused the collapse of a government, only to have a new government to accept a more stringent package a week later. The international community reacted to the Greek referendum negatively but not so dramatically only because the GDP of Greece is less than 2 percent of the EU total. But the warning signs were all there.

The Real Problem with Killing America's A-10 Warthog

Joel Bier

July 22, 2016

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“To win wars, people come first, ideas second and hardware last.”—Colonel John Boyd

As lawmakers and senior United States Air Force (USAF) officials debate A-10 divestment and alternate approaches to close air support (CAS) responsibilities, the divestment of the A-10 community, not the aircraft, poses the largest risk to the future of the mission. In Gen. David Goldfein’snomination testimony, he rightly stated the A-10 community is the Air Force’s “PhD force when it comes to close air support.” Although budgetary conflict over A-10 retirement is healthy dialogue for properly resourcing the CAS mission, the survival of expert tradecraft is far more important. While the hardware debate labors on, preserving the A-10 pilot manning pool as the bedrock of the future CAS pilot community provides an interim solution.

Col. John Boyd, pioneer USAF tactician and strategist, believed, “[t]o win wars, people come first, ideas second and hardware last.” He envisioned pilots trained for specific missions and planes designed to maximize their combat effectiveness in those missions. Committed to that ideal, Col. Avery Kay, Pierre Sprey and their concept design team ensured the original A-X program reflected Boyd’s purpose-driven, no-frills philosophy to weapons procurement. The resulting aircraft, the A-10, provides a premier example of mission-driven hardware, but it is not the crowning achievement of the design team’s effort. Instead, it is the matured community of CAS expertise that developed around the A-10 platform. As senior leaders debate A-10 divestment, decision makers must recognize the loss of expert people, not hardware, poses the largest threat to properly supporting America’s sons and daughters on the battlefield.

America's Lethal Iowa-Class Battleship vs. Russia's Battlecruiser: Who Wins?

Kyle Mizokami

July 22, 2016

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It’s 1988. World War Three has begun, with the armies of the Soviet Union and the rest of the Warsaw Pact pouring over the Inter-German Border. Their destination: the Rhine River and beyond, dealing NATO a knockout blow that will end the war.

Meanwhile at sea, an equally titanic battle is about to take place. A Soviet Kirov-class battlecruiser, attempting to intercept a U.S. Navy carrier battle group, is intercepted by the battleship USS Iowa. The biggest ship-against-ship battle since the World War Two is about to begin. Who wins?

Built in the late 1980s, the Kirov-class battlecruisers were designed—like much of the Soviet navy at the time—to neutralize American carrier battle groups during warfare. American aircraft carriers were a threat to not only the Soviet mainland but also Moscow’s nuclear missile submarines, and were to be taken out as quickly as possible. A secondary mission of the Kirov class was as commerce raider, designed to cut the flow of American and Canadian ground reinforcements to the battleground in Europe.

The Kirov class were the largest surface warships built since the end of World War II. Each displaced twenty-four thousand tons and measured 826 feet long—nearly as long as an aircraft carrier. Nuclear powered, they could cruise indefinitely at speeds of up to thirty-two knots.

Russia's F-15 Killer: Why America (and the World) Fears the Su-27 Flanker

Robert Farley

July 22, 2016

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To the West, most of the legendary Soviet aircraft of the Cold War came from the design bureau Mikoyan Gurevitch, which spawned such aircraft as the MiG-15 “Fagot,” MiG-21 “Fishbed,” MiG-25 “Foxbat” and MiG-29 “Fulcrum.” The single best Soviet fighter of the Cold War, however, was Sukhoi’s Su-27 “Flanker.” Intended both to defeat U.S. fighters over central Europe in a NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict and to patrol the airspace of the Soviet Union against U.S. bomber incursions, the Su-27 survived the end of the Cold War to become one of the world’s premier export fighters.

Origins

The Flanker emerged as part of the high part of the high-low fighter mix that both the United States and the Soviet Union adopted in the 1970s and 1980s. In the U.S. Air Force this manifested in the F-15 and F-16; in the U.S. Navy, the F-14 and F/A-18. The MiG-29 “Fulcrum” played the light role in the Soviet partnership.

Sukhoi designed the Flanker with the capabilities of the F-15 Eagle firmly in mind, and the aircraft that emerged resembles the fast, heavily armed, long-ranged Eagle in many ways. Whereas the Eagle looks healthy and well-fed, the Flanker has a gaunt, hungry appearance. Although designed as an air superiority aircraft, the Su-27 (much like the Eagle) has proven flexible enough to adapt to interceptor and ground strike roles. Sukhoi has also developed a wide family of variants, specialized for particular missions but retaining overall multirole capabilities.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN TURKEY ARE DESTABILIZING, BUT NOT FOR THE REASON YOU THINK

AARON STEIN

JULY 22, 2016

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Following the failed coup attempt in Turkey last week, concerns have been raised about the safety and security of American nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik Air Force base. People have wondered if the United States still needs to store nuclear weapons abroad. There have also been questions about the particular mission of the B-61 — a gravity bomb designed for delivery by piloted aircraft. The debates about the B-61, however, have failed to account for how the United States’ “pick up and drop” approach to NATO’s nuclear weapons posture in Turkey could prompt a first strike — and therefore undermine the deterrent mission the bombs are supposed to support.

A Brief History of Nuclear Forces in Turkey

As early as 1956, the United States and Turkey began to discuss the deployment of “special weapons” in the “Adana area” (Incirlik). The first nuclear capable delivery system in Turkey, the Honest John rocket system, was deployed in Adana in 1957, with the associated warhead being deployed in 1959.* Following the signing of the 1959 “Agreement for the Cooperation on the uses of Atomic Energy for Mutual Defense Purposes,” the United States began to build up its nuclear assets in Turkey, deploying gravity bombs and nuclear artillery shells.

How Bad Is Taiwan's Economy?

By Frank S.T. Hsiao

July 22, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/how-bad-is-taiwans-economy/

Many Taiwanese feel that the Taiwanese economy recently has been a disaster: low and stagnating wage rates, increasing income inequality, the hollowing out of domestic industries, and languishing exports. The new government of President Tsai Ing-wen came to power in May this year facing economic contractions for the past three quarters and a sharp decrease in exports for 16 consecutive months. Taiwan’s exports are expected to fall continuously for the rest of 2016.

These trends are reflected in Taiwan’s economic growth. According to the Asian Development Outlook 2016, published by the Asian Development Bank in April 2016, Taiwan’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 grew only 0.7 percent, down sharply from 3.9 percent growth in 2014. The 2016 growth forecast for Taiwan is only 1.1 percent, far behind estimates for neighboring countries South Korea (2.6 percent), Hong Kong (2.1 percent), and China (6.5 percent). As the Taiwanese economy depends heavily on its exports, especially on the Chinese market, considering increased competition from South Korea and Hong Kong along with China’s new policy of developing its own IT industries with heavy investment, the prospect of sustained growth for the Taiwanese economy is indeed bleak. It appears that the Taiwanese economy is sinking and that the “miracle growth” of the 1970s and the 1980s has run its course.

Amid this pessimistic outlook, however, when we look at the international data, and compare Taiwan’s economic performance with other countries, especially with some of the most advanced European countries, we find quite a different picture, as explained below.

PPP GDP Per Capita

Cray, Deloitte to offer cyber threat analytics solution

Sushri Sahu

Jul 20, 2016 

http://techseen.com/2016/07/20/cray-deloitte-cyber-threat-analytics/

The Cyber Reconnaissance and Analytics suite by Cray and Deloitte creates 'risk profiles' and enhances preparedness for unauthorized cyber attacks

American supercomputer manufacturer, Cray has partnered with Deloitte’s Advisory Cyber Risk Services to introduce Cyber Reconnaissance and Analytics for threat analysis in a business network. Available as a subscription-based offering, the analytics suite aims at helping organizations, combat cyber-attacks and defend unauthorized cyber penetrations. It claims to provide detailed, actionable information on potential threat vectors, create risk profiles and identify specific flows, network locations, times and events.

Deborah Golden, Leader and Principal, federal cyber risk services, Deloitte Advisory and Touche LLP, said:

Instead of reviewing every component of an agency’s internal enterprise, we are trying to show what the adversary sees in order to give an organization a true ‘risk profile.’ This includes the ability to effectively prioritize internal budgets and resources, and facilitate a realistic approach toward assessing network defense effectiveness.

More live training, new cyber-threat list as Army aims to avoid insider attacks

Kevin Lilley

July 20, 2016

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An Army anti-spying effort born shortly after the Cold War received an update last month, with expanded lists of potentially malicious cyber-activities and new training requirements designed to help ferret out insider threats.

Soldiers and Army civilians aren't strangers to the Threat Awareness and Reporting Program, with mandatory annual training that covers how to spot potential intruders, what methods they may use, and what punishments they — or those who don't report their actions — may face. The substance of that training hasn't changed much since 2010, with updates in the wake of the 2009 shooting at Fort Hood, Texas, but other parts of Army Regulation 381-12 recently received a makeover.

First, new rules require live training, not the online version, for soldiers and civilians "except in exceptional circumstances." These could include those serving in remote locations or alongside counterintelligence units that can't spare the manpower.

The computer-based training has averaged more than 202,000 users since going online in 2012, Army officials said — a number expected to drop significantly.

Second, all Army contractors with access to military information systems will be required to undergo the training. Old regulations applied only to those with security clearances.

Updates to the Army's threat-assessment guidelines

When a Cessna Goes to War

By Eric Tegler

Jul 22, 2016

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If the Cessna Caravan looks familiar to you, it should.Cessna has built more than 2,500 of these turboprops since the prototype flew in 1982. They're popular as short-haul airliners in places like the Caribbean. More than 250 Caravans haul cargo while painted in the unmistakeable colors of FedEx. But there are a small number of Caravans that haul Hellfire missiles, electro-optical targeting, and reconnaissance systems.

During the recent Farnborough Airshow in the U.K., Cessna announced it has received FAA certification and is now offering wing hard-points for the Grand Caravan EX. Hard-points are structurally reinforced sections of a wing where you mount pylons or the other structures that carry external stores like fuel tanks or weapons. The upshot: This is a Cessna that could go into battle.

The AC-208B "Combat Caravan" has been doing this for more than seven years, actually, and has flown combat sorties in Iraq (which has a fleet of eight Combat Caravans). Cessna refused to discuss it. That's partly because Combat Caravans have a sensitive connection with U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) and partly because the Combat Caravan wasn't developed and modified by Cessna.

The war-worthy Cessna came courtesy of Alliant Techsystems (now Orbital ATK), which has offered counter insurgency and intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities by outfitting various aircraft—Lockheed Martin C-130s, Bombardier Dash-8s, Hawker Beechcraft King Airs—with networked sensors and weapons. As the U.S. began rebuilding Iraq's air force in 2008, it contracted ATK to develop and modify a militarized version of the Cessna Grand Caravan for the Iraqi Air Force. Within 11 months, ATK completed live fire testing and delivered its first aircraft to Iraq.

Here comes G.I. Jane: Army accepts first women to attend school to become Green Berets

By Alex Quade
July 22, 2016

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. | Two female Army officers will make history when they report to Fort Bragg, North Carolina, in their first step toward earning the Special Forces tab and becoming Green Berets.

The female officers, whom Army officials declined to identify, could attend their first Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) class as early as October, though neither has yet received orders for training at Fort Bragg, The Washington Times has learned.

Col. Nestor A. Sadler, commandant of the Special Forces Regiment at the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center School at Fort Bragg, confirmed that the two female candidates had accepted invitations for the SFAS class.

“Two females met the requirements for SFAS and were nominated by the ARSOF [Army Special Operations Forces selection] panel to attend SFAS. One candidate declined her invitation and withdrew from the process. Special ForcesBranch asked why. On the last day to accept or decline the invitation, she changed her mind and accepted the invitation to attend SFAS,” Col. Sadler said.

At a recent Special Forces Association conference in Jacksonville, Col. Sadler said that the Army selection panel had reviewed the application packets of seven female officers. Of those, two were approved for the SFAS class, he said.

Officers may apply for special forces positions once a year. The Army selection panel in April reviewed application packets from 860 officers for the three Special Operations Regiments, which include Special Forces, Civil Affairs and PSYOP.

Power Restored to Turkey Base Used for US Airstrikes against ISIS

by Brendan McGarry

Jul 22, 2016 

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Two A-10C Thunderbolt II attack aircraft taxi down the flight line after landing at Incirlik Air Base, Turkey, in October 2015. U.S. Air Force photo

Power was restored Friday to the base in Turkey used by U.S. and coalition forces for airstrikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, American officials said.

Incirlik Air Base in the southern part of the country had been without power since July 16 and relying on generators to conduct the strikes following the attempted military coup against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"We will retain this capability should the power be interrupted again," officials from U.S. European Command, based in Stuttgart, Germany, said in a release. "Meanwhile there is a steady flow of hot food, water, and fuel to support our service members and civilians in Turkey."

The statement continued, "The U.S., in close coordination with the Turkish Military, will continue to work towards ensuring our facility, the U.S. service members who live and work on it, and the operations occurring there remain fully prepared to take on a myriad of missions as we work together to defeat terrorism."

Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook this week said more than 3,000 military personnel live and work in Turkey, mostly with the 39th Air Base Wing at Incirlik. They are joined by about 100 military dependents in the country after voluntary evacuations last September of about 600 military families following the terror attacks on the Brussels airport and metro.

How much does the Pentagon’s secretive bomber really cost? (And should you be allowed to know?)

By Christian Davenport 
July 20 

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An artist rendering of what the B-21 bomber, to be built by Northrop Grumman, could look like. (Image courtesy of the Air Force.)

There’s been controversy swirling around the Pentagon’s newest bomber program ever since last year, when the Air Force awarded the contract for what’s considered to be the most important national security procurement project over the next decade.

First, the losers, a team made up of defense giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin, filed a legal challenge, saying the Air Force’s selection of Northrop Grumman “was fundamentally flawed.” Northrop successfully fended off that protest, but now it faces more challenges, this time on Capitol Hill, where a backroom fight for funds and arguments over the largely classified bomber’s secrecy have begun.

Earlier this month, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the powerful chairman of the Armed Services Committee, led an effort that would have forced the Air Force to reveal the total cost of the program—which one analyst estimated could reach $100 billion. But in a closed-door session, a band of senators blocked the move, arguing that revealing the figure would also divulge the bomber’s capabilities and allow potential enemies to defend against it.

An attempt to institute a “cost threshold” on the program and impose other restrictions in the Senate version of the Pentagon spending bill also met with resistance. On Monday, another group of senators dashed off a letter to McCain and the leaders of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, insisting such measures “could cause delays and induce greater risk in development and procurement phases of the program,” the senators wrote.