Frank Luntz
Some people are comparing the chaotic end of US involvement in Afghanistan to the final days of South Vietnam. They’ve got it wrong. What’s happening in Kabul is more akin to the Bay of Pigs under JFK or the disaster in Iran in 1979. That failure cost Jimmy Carter the presidency in 1980, and Afghanistan could cost Democrats the White House in 2024.
President Biden had been flying high in the polls. Thanks to bipartisan support on a host of issues, he had been running 10 per cent above his predecessor at the same point in their respective administrations. With his carefully manicured image and his refusal to face reporters on a daily basis, Biden had looked, for the most part, competent and confident. No longer.
It is said that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Biden, not wanting another Vietnam, told the American people it was time to leave Afghanistan. The public agreed. In April, 69 per cent of Americans supported Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, while only 16 per cent were opposed. For a nation hopelessly divided on just about every issue, this is as unanimous as it gets.
In his April 14 withdrawal announcement, Biden was clear. No Vietnam. No Iran. “We will not conduct a hasty rush to the exit. We’ll do it responsibly, deliberately and safely.” The public overwhelmingly agreed. On the surface, Biden had made a wise decision to leave. But there is an even more powerful emotion that pollsters can’t immediately measure. Americans hate to lose – and they will punish a president who leads America to defeat.
On Monday, the President had to scramble back from Camp David to explain why there was an unfolding disaster in Kabul. Yet he passed the blame to the previous administration and, incredibly, the Afghan people.
The political consequences will be just as impactful in Washington as the military impact in Kabul. It could even unravel the Biden presidency. The most damaging impact will be the backlash over how the withdrawal was executed. Biden promised the country that there would be no helicopters “lifting people off the roof of the embassy”. He kept that promise: the American embassy in Kabul has its helipad on the front lawn.
More embarrassing moments will follow. On September 11 2021, 20 years after 9/11, a Taliban flag will be flying over that new $775 million embassy. Thanks to technology not available in the 1970s, the images from Kabul are already unmistakably tinged with failure. Afghans falling off C-17 wheel-wells as the planes take off are no less searing than tank man in Tiananmen Square or falling man on 9/11.
This will be followed by horror stories of Afghans who supported the US, as translators, or host nation staff, being tortured or killed. This in addition to the nearly 30,000 Afghan special forces troops who fought ferociously side by side with US troops and are now being hunted down by the Taliban. The egregious failure to properly plan for their extraction will be a constant and agonizing story for the US over the next six to 12 months.
We know how women were mistreated under the Taliban in the 1990s. Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken express false hope that the Taliban will moderate themselves. The American voter, particularly suburban moms, will think otherwise.
In the end, the public will need to come to grips with what brought the US to Afghanistan in 2001: the Taliban’s harboring of terrorists. This weekend, General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that he had already begun to revise the date he estimates terrorist organizations will be able to operate freely in Afghanistan and threaten the US and its allies. The US stopped those deadly attacks against our homeland for 20 years thanks to military control of Afghanistan. Should that streak be broken, the public will know who to blame.
Regardless of the facts on the ground, Biden will continue to assert that this was the right withdrawal at the right time. That will not sit well with the electorate. The negative impact on his popularity and the American public’s trust in his leadership and competence will be significant, and it was all self-inflicted. Foreign policy is normally the place where presidents go to mask mistakes at home. Not this time.
Robert Gates, the former Secretary of Defense, once wrote that Biden has “been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades”. That harsh assessment may prove even more prescient as we watch this complex foreign policy disaster play out in the region – and eventually at the ballot box.
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