Stephen M. Walt
Operation Spider's Web—Ukraine’s dramatic and stunning drone attack on air bases deep inside Russia—illustrates several themes that have characterized the war ever since Russia launched its illegal invasion in 2022. It is an example of Ukraine’s resilience, creativity, and audacity, which are qualities that have surprised Moscow on more than one occasion. It showed the incompetence and complacency of the Russian national security and intelligence establishment, which failed to anticipate or detect Ukraine’s successful effort to smuggle more than 100 lethal drones and remote operators deep into Russian territory and close to air bases where strategic bombers were deployed. Russia’s battlefield performance has improved since the war’s early days, but its national security apparatus remains vulnerable.
However, the understandable satisfaction that many observers felt upon learning of Spider's Web also reflects some of the errors that have undermined efforts to develop an effective response to the Russian invasion. Brilliant tactical innovations cannot make up for asymmetries in forces or resolve and the absence of an effective overall strategy. Three years into the war, Kyiv and its backers still lack a convincing plan to thwart Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war aims and convince him to end the fighting. Putin’s resolve does not appear to have been shaken by this latest incident, and he was true to his word when he told U.S. President Donald Trump that his country was determined to retaliate.
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