Andrew Latham
MEDITERRANEAN SEA (Feb. 21, 2017) The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) transits the Mediterranean Sea in support of Operation Inherent Resolve. The George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is conducting naval operations in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations in support of U.S. national security interests. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Daniel Gaither/Released)
Key Points and Summary – In a war with China, the U.S. must prepare to absorb a massive opening punch of over a thousand missiles and drones aimed at paralyzing its forces.
-The key to victory is not preventing this first strike but building a resilient force that can “fight hurt.”
-This requires a radical shift to strategies like Agile Combat Employment, which disperses aircraft across many smaller bases, and developing resilient command networks.
-It also demands “magazine depth”—surging production of key munitions and operationalizing at-sea reloading—and fully integrating allied firepower.
-The goal is to survive the opening hours and win the longer campaign.
‘Disperse or Die’: The Air Force’s Survival Plan for a War With China
America’s next war will probably start with a number, not a speech.
Imagine a first day with perhaps a thousand inbound missiles and drones: craters on airbases, fuel farms in flames, runways closed, command posts jammed, warships bracketed, aircraft trapped on the ground.
That’s the tempo Beijing wants to impose, compressing the timeline until decision-making stumbles and recovery falters.
The United States can’t wish that away.
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