Ukraine's long-range strike campaign against targets deep inside Russia has maintained a stable frequency of over 30 verified attacks per month since mid-2025, with no significant surge in intensity in 2026. The average strike range, however, doubled year-on-year in May, reaching 800 kilometers from 400 kilometers, potentially indicating depleted Russian air defenses.
Strikes on oil infrastructure constitute approximately one-third of Ukraine's long-range efforts, consistent with late 2025, with evidence suggesting a shift towards targeting more complex-to-repair refinery equipment like cracking units. Despite an initial success in late summer and early fall 2025, which saw Russian refinery capacity losses peak at 1.6 million barrels per day, operators adapted by mid-fall, quickly repairing damaged equipment or utilizing spare capacity. Current strike levels on oil infrastructure are comparable to August–October 2025, implying the sector's performance in 2026 is not significantly worse.
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