The U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked on extending their ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but some ships are now crossing the contested waterway with U.S. military guidance. The strait has been effectively shut for three months, trapping one-fifth of the world’s pre-war oil supplies and 2,000 ships in the Persian Gulf.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains the ability to close the strait using missiles, drones, mines, and fast-attack boats. The U.S. Navy initiated mine-clearing operations and sent two destroyers through an alternate route near Oman’s coast to re-establish freedom of navigation. Ship traffic has increased, with U.S. Central Command offering navigation advice. Iranian fast boats reportedly turned away after U.S. helicopters appeared. Ships, including those from the UAE's state oil giant and Qatari LNG tankers, are transiting, often turning off Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to avoid detection, while the U.S. military monitors traffic. A Greek supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil and a Chinese-owned fertilizer vessel recently crossed. This increased traffic is insufficient to prevent global oil markets from a looming crisis unless the strait fully reopens.
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