Joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran initiated a Middle East war, resulting in strategic limbo and dueling blockades that have closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing 14 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil from world markets. Despite weeks of punishing airstrikes, Iran remains defiant, with U.S. and Iranian negotiating positions far apart, compounded by ongoing U.S.
military actions during peace talks. For a deal, Trump must recalibrate demands, abandoning maximalist stances on Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities, and proxy forces, while addressing the lack of credible assurances caused by past U.S. actions and rhetoric. An indefinite standoff over the Strait of Hormuz risks global economic collapse as oil inventories deplete, especially if it remains closed past June. A narrow deal, requiring U.S. concessions on the Strait and nuclear file, is Trump’s least bad option. This involves frontloading benefits like lifting the U.S. blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets for reopening the Strait, and phased sanctions relief for a nuclear enrichment moratorium, offering Iran security and economic benefits.
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