3 June 2026

Has Iran won the war by not losing?

Engelsberg Ideas  |  Ibrahim Al-Marashi, Tanya Goudsouzian

Iran's survival strategy has effectively leveraged geo-economic warfare, demonstrating its ability to withstand US-Israel bombardment since February 28 and defy predictions of regime collapse. The Islamic Republic's approach, characterized by endurance and positional advantage, has redefined modern combat. Iran claims victory by not losing, showcasing its capacity to manipulate hydrocarbon prices, highlight the risks of American military bases to Gulf neighbors, and repeatedly strike Israel, at times overwhelming its missile defenses.

Furthermore, Iran has maintained the Yemeni Houthis as a "wild card" for Red Sea disruption and utilized Iraqi militias and Hezbollah as potent regional force multipliers, striking targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE (including a nuclear facility), and Israel. This asymmetrical techno-guerilla warfare has outmaneuvered technologically superior adversaries. The US, facing rising costs and public opposition, appears to be seeking an "off-ramp," while Iran believes time and attrition will strengthen its negotiating position, particularly regarding its enriched uranium stockpiles.

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