President Emmanuel Macron announced major changes to France’s nuclear doctrine on March 2 from the Île Longue naval base, aiming to adapt to new global geostrategic challenges, particularly the return of high-intensity conflict in Europe. France will increase its nuclear arsenal and introduced a new strategic concept of forward deterrence (dissuasion avancée), allowing active participation by selected European allies in French nuclear operations.
This initiative complements, rather than replaces, US extended deterrence, especially as the US focuses on the Indo-Pacific. The plan outlines an incremental integration of nine allied states—including Belgium, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, UK, Denmark, Norway, Poland, and Sweden—into French nuclear operations, building on the French-UK Northwood Declaration. This involves participation in exercises like "POKER," strategic signaling through temporary deployments of strategic air forces with implicit nuclear dimensions, and ultimately, crisis deployment of forces abroad. This quadruples the operational area for French strategic air forces, complicating adversary planning for a disarming strike and increasing the political cost of an attack by requiring strikes against multiple countries.
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