The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on June 17 at the G7 summit, aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease sanctions, and begin a 60-day negotiation process. However, its fragility emerged swiftly with US President Donald Trump’s renewed military threats and concerns over Iranian negotiators' security, jeopardizing diplomatic progress.
This MoU is seen as a pause, not a settlement, restoring pre-war conditions while leaving US, Iran, and Israel tensions unresolved. Israel, not a party, continues its assault on Lebanon, potentially unraveling the fragile agreement. The conflict is now likely to revert to a "gray-zone" state, involving proxy warfare, cyber operations, economic coercion, and periodic military escalation, as the underlying drivers remain. The US spent US$132 billion, yet the MoU grants Tehran economic relief without resolving missile capabilities or uranium enrichment. Iran considers its survival a strategic victory and will likely continue its gray-zone competition, exposing limits of military superiority and potentially pushing Gulf states towards China and Russia.
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