Economic Integration in the Middle East Is a False God

Foreign Policy | y Steven A. Cook

United States foreign policy initiatives aimed at fostering economic integration in the Middle East, particularly involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Gulf states, face significant skepticism regarding their actual strategic utility. While Washington policymakers under a potential second Trump administration heavily promote regional economic connectivity as a stabilizing force, critics argue this approach yields few tangible benefits for American interests.

The underlying assumption that commercial ties can bypass deep-seated political and security rivalries ignores the persistent geopolitical friction points across the region. Consequently, relying on economic integration as a primary diplomatic tool fails to address core security dilemmas, such as the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and regional competition. Ultimately, Washington's pursuit of these integration frameworks may divert critical diplomatic resources from more pressing geopolitical challenges, including U.S.-China competition and the war in Ukraine, without achieving lasting regional stability or securing concrete strategic advantages for the United States.

Comment

The promotion of Middle Eastern economic integration by the United States as a security surrogate creates a fragile dependency on commercial ties to deter Iranian-backed militancy. This policy trade-off prioritises trade corridors over the deployment of robust deterrence assets, such as the United States Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain. By substituting market access for hard power, this approach inadvertently invites revisionist actors in the Persian Gulf to exploit security vacuums through asymmetric warfare. This imbalance demonstrates that commercial ties between Israel and the Gulf states cannot mitigate systemic military threats without a formal American security umbrella.

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