Is China a Peaked Power? And So What If It Is?

Small Wars Journal | Russell D. Howard

The Chinese Communist Party is accelerating its strategic timelines to challenge Western dominance before its relative national power peaks and begins an irreversible decline. This peaking status incentivizes Beijing to exploit current American military overextension in the Middle East, raising the immediate risk of a preventative conventional conflict over Taiwan.

Internally, as detailed in Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, the regime faces severe demographic contraction, real estate insolvency, and deep aquifer depletion, while its Belt and Road Initiative suffers widespread sovereign debt defaults. To offset these vulnerabilities, Beijing employs a multi-vector gray-zone campaign encompassing narrative warfare, civilian interventions, coercive signaling, and cyber operations like Volt Typhoon. To counter this compound threat, Washington must transition to an active offensive by securing the First Island Chain, defending Philippine maritime assets, replenishing depleted Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, and leveraging the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.

Comment

The deployment of the Volt Typhoon cyber campaign reveals a fundamental shift in Chinese military doctrine toward pre-emptive infrastructure disruption. This operational approach aligns with the People's Liberation Army concept of "system destruction warfare," which targets an adversary's political will and logistical capacity before kinetic operations commence. By embedding persistent access within civilian municipal networks, Beijing establishes a non-kinetic lever designed to paralyse power grids and transport hubs during a Taiwan Strait contingency. Consequently, the traditional distinction between peacetime espionage and wartime sabotage has effectively dissolved within Chinese information operations doctrine.

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