6 July 2026

Iran Lost Its Supreme Leader, Its Navy, and Its Missiles — and Still Found the One Card That Forces America to Negotiate

National Security Journal  |  Caleb Larson

American and Iranian negotiators are slowly hammering out a tentative deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, despite Iran having been severely battered by the joint Israeli-American "Operation Epic Fury" which decimated its naval assets, missile and drone forces, and killed its Supreme Leader. However, Iran's theocracy has retained power amidst economic decay, leveraging its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

US President Donald Trump reported positive progress in Doha talks, stating "denuclearization of Iran is moving along well," which led to Brent crude oil futures dipping to $72.82 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures to $67.88. Negotiations involve a US offer to unfreeze Iranian assets and a joint Iran-Qatar proposal for transit fees on ships, which the US and Gulf states oppose due to concerns about setting a precedent for global maritime trade.

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