Russia's President Vladimir Putin has ordered his General Staff to develop plans for a new offensive, including a potential assault on Kyiv launched from Belarus. Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed this development but simultaneously outlined why such a large-scale operation is unlikely to materialize. Syrskyi stated on June 30 that Belarus is unlikely to participate, and no significant invasion force is currently massing on the Belarusian border.
Instead, he anticipates a narrower offensive from Russia’s Bryansk region into Ukraine’s Chernihiv region, designed to stretch Ukrainian defenses and divert reserves. This objective differs significantly from capturing Kyiv, which Russia failed to take in 2022. Russia's capacity remains constrained, having missed fifteen deadlines to capture Donetsk, now targeting December 31. Independent analysts note a strategic stalemate, with Ukrainian drone strikes in the Pokrovsk direction blocking Russian troop rotations and long-range strikes causing gasoline shortages within Russia.
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