Iran and the United States have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) ending their war after an April cease-fire and 70 days of indirect talks. This agreement led to a 60-day roadmap for a final deal, working groups on nuclear enrichment and sanctions, and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, causing the Iranian rial to gain over 15 percent against the dollar.
Despite initial perceptions of regime unity, significant internal divisions persist regarding Iran's future global positioning. Hard-line factions, including the Paydari Front and Saeed Jalili's network, actively challenged parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and pressed President Masoud Pezeshkian to resign, aiming to undermine diplomatic efforts and economic normalization. These groups advocate continued confrontation, citing distrust of the U.S. and the economic costs of war. Conversely, the pro-diplomacy camp, led by Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Ghalibaf, prioritizes ending the war and pragmatic engagement. The traditional divide between civilian doves and the IRGC is complicated, as the IRGC now supervises the negotiating process, shifting hard-line pressure to a political-clerical bloc.
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