America’s Fatal Attraction to War: The Perverse Incentives for Presidents to Use Military Force

Foreign Affairs | Emma Ashford

U.S. military forces executed Operation Epic Fury against Iranian military infrastructure, triggering a protracted Middle Eastern conflict that rapidly consumed precision munition stockpiles and damaged key regional bases. Despite initial tactical successes and early rhetoric promising regime change in Tehran, the campaign failed to dismantle the Islamic Republic while increasing operational threats to maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Institutional structures, constitutional executive latitude, and low direct public costs continually incentivize American presidential administrations to initiate foreign interventions without securing durable strategic victories. The 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly prioritized the Indo-Pacific and Western Hemisphere, yet entrenched traditionalist policy factions and minimal political friction pushed leadership into severe theater overextension. Consequently, elevated domestic inflation reaching 4.8 percent before easing to 3.5 percent forced tentative diplomatic re-engagement, while critical interceptor drawdowns severely compromised long-term military deterrence postures against peer competitors Russia and China across primary global operational domains.

Comment

Rapid expenditure of precision-guided munitions during Operation Epic Fury exposes severe structural bottlenecks within the defense industrial base. Interceptor replacement cycles for systems like the Patriot PAC-3 regularly span several years, creating prolonged coverage deficits across secondary theaters. Deep-stock depletion in regional bases compromises long-term deterrence margins against peer adversaries in the Indo-Pacific. Munitions shortfalls force uncomfortable operational rationing between active Middle Eastern air defence networks and Pacific theatre requirements.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If high-rate expenditure of systems like the Patriot PAC-3 continues during Operation Epic Fury, which operational trade-off poses the greater systemic risk to Pacific theatre readiness, and why?

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