Why isn’t Iran attacking Israel?

The Jerusalem Post  |  Mike Evans

Israeli targeted strikes against high-ranking Iranian commanders and a massive cyberattack during Operation Roaring Lion-Epic Fury reduced Iran's internet capacity to 4% while systematically disrupting its senior leadership structure. By neutralizing key decision-makers such as Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi and supreme leader Ali Khamenei, targeted decapitation strikes successfully deterred direct Iranian counterattacks against Israel.

However, Tehran continues to leverage inexpensive Shahed-136 one-way attack drones and $300 3D-printed Hezbollah FPV systems to destabilize regional shipping along the 21-mile Strait of Hormuz and target American bases across Kuwait and Jordan. Air and naval assets alone remain insufficient to neutralize these widely dispersed, low-cost unmanned platforms hidden throughout Iran's expansive terrain. To counter this persistent asymmetrical threat without initiating a major conventional campaign, the United States is accelerating its own counter-drone and leadership-targeting strategy, aiming to field over 300,000 small strike drones across military services by 2028.

Comment

The tactical reliance on low-cost Shahed-136 platforms demonstrates a structural shift toward asymmetric attrition designed to bypass integrated air defence networks. Saturated attacks using cheap loitering munitions impose severe cost-imposition ratios on surface combatants patrolling narrow maritime corridors. This dynamic rapidly depletes multi-million-dollar surface-to-air missiles against sub-$30,000 airframes. Operational control across the Strait of Hormuz consequently shifts from capital ship presence to the endurance of localized counter-unmanned capacity.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If cheap loitering munitions like the Shahed-136 continue to invert traditional air defence cost ratios, will naval dominance in narrow chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz depend more on magazine depth or the rapid deployment of directed-energy counter-unmanned systems?

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