Neither Iran nor Israel: Saudi Arabia’s Vision for Lebanon

Arab Center Washington DC | Giorgio Cafiero

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed support for Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on July 20, 2026, backing efforts to consolidate armed forces under state authority as Aoun urged US President Donald Trump to secure an Israeli troop withdrawal. Riyadh's strategy aims to restore state sovereignty across the Levant, shielding regional markets and safeguarding economic diversification under Vision 2030 from geopolitical instability.

Following the March 2023 Beijing Agreement and regional setbacks to Iran's Axis of Resistance in 2024, Saudi Arabia renewed diplomatic engagement with Beirut, lifting a five-year ban on Lebanese fruit exports in June 2026. Rejecting both Iranian influence and Israeli hegemony, Riyadh opposes long-term Israeli presence in South Lebanon while seeking to empower state institutions over non-state actors like Hezbollah. This stance seeks to prevent fragmentation and preserve Lebanese Armed Forces authority under the Trilateral Framework Agreement signed on June 26, 2026.

Comment

The implementation of the Trilateral Framework Agreement signed on June 26, 2026, creates an asymmetric operational boundary between external security guarantees and sovereign military oversight in South Lebanon. If the Lebanese Armed Forces assume enforcement roles without a full political mandate, domestic credibility risks rapid degradation against non-state factions. This institutional gap reveals how formal security accords collapse when sub-state networks retain latent mobilisation capacity across the Levant.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Trilateral Framework Agreement signed on June 26, 2026, fails to deliver a complete Israeli military withdrawal from South Lebanon, which alternative security mechanism can realistically prevent the Lebanese Armed Forces from being viewed as an enforcement agent for foreign interests?

Share your assessment in the comments below.

To read in details click here