The Abandoned Order: Learning to Live in a Post-American World

Foreign Affairs  |  Mark Leonard

United States support for the rules-based international order has collapsed, forcing global allies to adapt to an unprecedented systemic breakdown without an alternative superpower stepping in. President Donald Trump’s internal rebellion against multilateral institutions, coupled with weaponized tariffs and alliance burden-shifting, has accelerated the fragmentation of global governance.

Technological diffusion, such as cheap precision missiles and drones, has severely eroded traditional U.S. maritime and aerial dominance across critical chokepoints. Consequently, middle powers and adversaries increasingly operate without a shared regulatory framework, triggering sharp price divergences in energy commodities, high-tech supply chain weaponization, and systemic economic decoupling. Key security partnerships like NATO and AUKUS face unprecedented strain as member states hedge against American unreliability through localized defense spending and potential nuclear proliferation. As conventional diplomatic mechanisms fail, informal intermediaries handle frozen conflicts while state actors turn trade infrastructure, financial networks, and critical technologies into geopolitical weapons.

Comment

Allied efforts to hedge against American security retrenchment through unilateral hardware procurement introduce profound integration friction within NATO coalitional command architectures. European reliance on platforms such as the F-35 Lightning II reinforces technological dependency on Washington's software supply chains even as executive political commitments weaken. This dynamic creates a structural paradox where European defense budgets fail to yield autonomous operational capability.

Subsidising foreign industrial bases, as seen with Australian funding for the Virginia-class submarine pipeline under AUKUS, diverts capital from domestic sovereign shipbuilding. Consequently, AUKUS signatories risk locking themselves into decades-long sustainment dependencies for nuclear-powered hulls that require explicit Pentagon consent to deploy.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Australia's capital investments in the Virginia-class submarine program fail to yield timely vessel deliveries due to U.S. shipyard bottlenecks, which sovereign force structure alternative becomes viable for Royal Australian Navy deterrence in the Indo-Pacific?

The trajectory indicates that industrial shortfalls at General Dynamics Electric Boat will likely compel Canberra to extend the operational life of its existing Collins-class submarine fleet through life-of-type extensions. My assessment is that such sustainment delays would force the Royal Australian Navy to rely more heavily on asymmetric long-range strike options, including air-launched anti-ship missiles, to maintain credible regional deterrence.

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