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14 May 2014

PAKISTAN MILITARY TIES? – ANALYSIS



US President Barack Obama travelled to Saudi Arabia on March 28 in his first visit to the country since 2009 and met King Abdullah to assure that the US-Saudi strategic interests remain very much aligned. The visit came even as the Saudis worry about the commitment of their security provider, the US, to the region and its willingness to stand by its traditional allies.
Post the visit

The meeting was important from the point of putting out a reassurance that Saudi-US relations were on an even keel. According to Gregory Gause, professor of political science at the University of Vermont, the US dispelled Saudi fears that “some of the more wild interpretations of American policy … about the US leaving the Middle East, throwing over the Saudis, and allying with Iran, were just exaggerations.” It also appears that the Saudis have settled down to the idea that the US is keen to proceed with the Iran nuclear deal, and whatever they need to do to address their concerns regarding Iran and the Shia-Sunni dynamics they would have to find their own partner within and on the periphery of the region.

Post Obama’s visit to Riyadh, there seems to be four perceptible changes in US policy to accommodate Saudi concerns. First is a renewed push to arm the Syrian moderate opposition against the Bashar Assad regime; second is the softening of stand on aid, specifically military aid, to Egypt; third seems to be the tacit US approval to the involvement of Pakistan in Gulf security both in terms of manpower and military equipment; and lastly, the scaling up of US drone operations against the Al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula. Saudis on their part have progressed with the restructuring of their internal intelligence and counter-terror mechanisms, which had commenced prior to Obama’s visit. The internal changes seem to be primarily driven by Saudi requirements, but may have addressed a few US issues in the process.
Internal reorganisation

Saudi Arabia recently issued a royal decree appointing a new intelligence chief after removing Prince Bandar bin Sultan “at his own request” at the General Intelligence Presidency (GIP), the Saudi equivalent of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Bandar, a formerly ambassador to the US, dealt with the Saudi policy on Syria and had been publically critical of the US for not conducting a military intervention into Syria. Bandar oversaw King Abdullah’s policy of a hard line stance against the Assad regime and thwart Iran’s emergence as a nuclear-armed regional rival to Saudi Arabia. The king took the unprecedented step of naming Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz the deputy crown prince. And in a very directly worded pronouncement, the king decreed that when Prince Salman becomes king, Muqrin will immediately become crown prince.

The Saudi government’s official gazette, Um al-Qura, published the full text of the Penal Law for Crimes of Terrorism and its Financing (the “terrorism law”) on Jan 31, 2014. Aimed at countering terrorism and support to terror groups by Saudi nationals, the law took effect on Feb 1. The decree also prohibits endorsing, donating or financing any violent or terrorist group by any means necessary, even physically, through mass media or social media. Saudi Arabia has initiated economic and social reforms and has further increased intelligence cooperation with the US. On March 7, Saudi Arabia declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization and equated the Brotherhood with other designated terrorist organizations, including Al Qaeda, with all its branches (Yemen, Arabia, Levant), the Al Nusra Front of Syria, DAESH (The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Al Hoothy Shia’ Brigades (Yemen) and all other groups inspired by Al Qaeda.

Arming of the Syrian Opposition

The US has gone ahead to provide arms to the “moderate” Syrian opposition. Besides pandering to the Saudis and the fact that providing arms will not turn the tide of the conflict decisively against Assad, the Obama administration feels it could improve the US’ chances of finding support among successful revolutionary forces if and when the Assad regime falls. US also feels that Syrian militant opposition groups such as the Al-Nusrah and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant are more extreme in their ideology than even the Al Qaeda and need to be countered.

On April 7, Israel’s Debkafile website reported that two moderate Syrian rebel militias, the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian Revolutionary Front, have been supplied with US weapons, including anti-tank BGM-71 TOW missiles. The Hazm movement (Harakat Hazm), part of the Free Syrian Army, brings together mainly ex-army officers and soldiers who defected from the military to join the revolt. It has for the first time received more than 20 TOW anti-tank missiles which have used them in flashpoint areas of Idlib, Aleppo and Latakia provinces in the north. Saudi Arabian fighter jets stationed at the kingdom’s Faisal Air Base at Tabuk near Jordan reportedly provided air cover as American forces moved the first advanced US weaponry to be deployed in more than three years of civil war, into southern Syria.

The CIA plans to send more arms and provide training to the Syrian rebels, as the 50 TOW missile systems that had been sent to Harakat Hazm were part of a “test” or pilot programme. The US continues to resist supplying the man-portable air defence missile systems. However, there are reports that it may give in to the demands to provide shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons.

Egypt

The US has announced it will deliver 10 Apache helicopters to Egypt, easing a partial suspension of aid imposed after the military ousted president Mohamed Morsi in July 2013. According to the Pentagon, the helicopters will aid in Egypt’s “counter-terrorism” operations in the Sinai Peninsula against extremists who threaten the US, Egyptian and Israeli security. The decision came despite the US not being able to verify if Egypt was taking measures towards a democratic transition. But recently there have been calls to block the aid amid demands for free and fair elections and to ease restrictions on freedom of expression, assembly, and the media.

Pakistan

Pakistan is emerging as a key component of Saudi ‘readjustment’, providing both men and material to the kingdom. Sartaj Aziz, the Pakistani prime minister’s advisor on foreign affairs and national security, has confirmed earlier reports that Pakistan is “making efforts” to sell small arms and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. He denied any link of the arms sales to the Syrian opposition, saying there was no Syria-specific agreement at this time and reiterated Pakistan’s neutral stance on the civil war.

According to Pakistani media reports, the Kuwaiti government has decided to set up a defence office under its embassy in Islamabad and has formally informed the Pakistani government. Pakistan’s military experts would train 11,000 Kuwaiti soldiers. Kuwait is the fourth country in the Gulf Cooperation Council, after Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman, to open a defence office in Islamabad and recruit former Pakistani defence personnel for security duties.

A few days back Saudi Arabia staged its largest-ever military exercise, codenamed “Abdullah’s Sword”, to demonstrate its capability to defend itself against its northern Shiite neighbours. The guest list for the event was the most potent symbol of Saudi power, bringing together its Gulf allies with Pakistan and its nuclear shield. At Saudi Arabia’s northeastern military base of Hafr al-Batin, the kingdom’s armed forces held a massive military parade to mark the conclusion of the major exercise. The chief guest was Crown Prince Salman, the Saudi defence minister. Also present was Pakistani army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif on his second visit in the last few months, seated next to Prince Mitab, the minister of the Saudi National Guard and senior son of the king.

There are also reports that Saudi Arabia is attempting to cobble together a new military alliance which will eventually include the six countries of the GCC, as well as Morocco, Jordan and Egypt. The motivation for the GCC proposal is to strengthen the regional grouping, which seeks to secure the assistance of a total of 300,000 troops from Morocco, Egypt and Jordan, in exchange for financial aid.

The Saudi reliance on Pakistan in its “readjustments” in the Middle East will provide renewed relevance to the Pakistani military in the nation’s foreign policy at a time when most analysts are expecting a shift in the centre of gravity of the Pakistani civil-military relations towards the political establishment, post the US drawdown from Afghanistan. This may not augur well for the normalisation of India-Pakistan relations.

This article appeared at South Asia Monitor.

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