The Role of ASEAN in the South China Sea Disputes

E-International Relations | Leticia Simões

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations faces structural paralysis in mitigating South China Sea territorial disputes due to internal division among its ten member states and persistent diplomatic pressure from Beijing. Four member nations—Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei—maintain overlapping sovereignty claims in the Spratly and Paracel Islands against China's extensive nine-dash line claims.

Consensus decision-making limits bloc action. While individual states ratified the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to establish exclusive economic zones, regional conflict resolution mechanisms remain non-binding. The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties lacks enforcement provisions, and negotiations for a binding Code of Conduct have stalled since 1999. Non-claimant ASEAN states prioritize bilateral economic ties with China over collective regional security guarantees. Consequently, Beijing leverages consensus requirements within the regional organization to prevent a unified diplomatic front, leaving claimant states dependent on fragmented bilateral negotiations and unilateral maritime strategies.

It’s Time to Debate How the Army Fights

Modern War Institute | Robert G. Rose, Patrick Sullivan

The United States Army published its "How the Army Fights" operational concept in October 2026, seeking to modernize force preparation through four central elements: convergence, strike, close battle, and endurance. Proponents frame the document as an essential distillation of multidomain operations meant to align service echelons against pacing threats like China.

However, critical analysis indicates the framework lacks a coherent theory of victory grounded in the 2025 National Security Strategy's mandate for deterrence by denial across the first island chain. Unlike General Donn Starry's 1981 AirLand Battle concept—which countered Warsaw Pact deep operations—the new doctrine omits tactical specifics regarding People's Liberation Army methods or littoral amphibious defense. This leaves inside forces without clear operational guidance before air and maritime dominance is established. The framework remains fundamentally divided. Furthermore, its centralized command echelons risk directly misaligning with the PLA's post-2016 decentralization into agile combined arms brigades.

America Must Win the Biotech Race Against China

RealClearDefense | Rob Maness

China currently supplies key starting materials for hundreds of United States-approved medicines, leveraging heavy state subsidies to dominate global active pharmaceutical ingredient supply chains. This reliance creates severe strategic vulnerabilities during geopolitical crises, where access to pharmaceuticals equals fuel or food in operational importance. Beijing is rapidly expanding into frontier biotechnology through centralized clinical trial networks and streamlined regulatory pathways.

Chinese biotech licensing deals reached nearly $138 billion last year—a nearly tenfold surge over four years—while China captured nearly one-third of global clinical trial starts. In response, retired United States Air Force Colonel Rob Maness advocates integrating foreign early-stage trial data into American regulatory pipelines alongside domestic industrial reforms. Regulatory delays stall progress. Accelerating domestic permitting, protecting intellectual property, and expanding trial initiatives like Operation TrialBlazer are essential to secure Western pharmaceutical resilience and preserve technological dominance against strategic competitors.

China’s defence conglomerates: temporary troubles?

International Institute for Strategic Studies | Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Meia Nouwens

Chinese defence state-owned enterprises NORINCO, CASC, CASIC, and CSGC experienced real-terms revenue drops between 4% and 16% over recent multi-year periods, despite Beijing expanding national defence spending by 32% between 2021 and 2025. This widening divergence highlights a sharp structural tension between top-line military budget expansion and actual revenue collection across state defense conglomerates.

While national defense spending reached USD273 billion in 2026—with over 40% earmarked for research, procurement, and maintenance—institutional inefficiencies and structural reorganisations hampered corporate financial performance. Meanwhile, American competitors like Lockheed Martin widened their revenue advantage over top Chinese contractors like AVIC, which generated USD32.2 billion in 2025 compared to Boeing's USD35.7 billion. Revenue results remained highly uneven. Nevertheless, aerospace firm AVIC and shipbuilder CSSC recorded revenue gains of 18% and 5% respectively, demonstrating that modern air and naval modernization programs continue to yield select financial growth despite broader sector turbulence.

Why Kenneth Rogoff thinks China’s yuan will be a reserve currency ‘in the next 5 years’

South China Morning Post | Kandy Wong

Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff projects that the Chinese yuan will achieve global reserve currency status within five years following explicit directive calls from President Xi Jinping. Investors globally are seeking avenues to diversify away from the US dollar amid growing geopolitical tensions and currency volatility. Chinese technocrats have long advocated for greater monetary independence and exchange rate flexibility against the American greenback.

However, top political leadership historically resisted currency reform to avoid disrupting rapid economic growth. Transitioning the currency does not require completely open capital markets. Instead, Beijing must broaden foreign investor access to its government bond markets and expand forward contracts and interest rate swaps. This financial broadening would enable global institutions to intermediate international transactions independently of Washington. Foreign appetite for diversification remains high. If China allows greater exchange rate fluctuations, foreign demand will rapidly absorb Chinese sovereign debt, reshaping international financial architecture.

Is the PLA rehearsing operations to keep US forces out of a Taiwan conflict?

South China Morning Post | Gabriel Dominguez

People's Liberation Army naval assets, comprising over 100 warships and coastguard vessels, deployed across the western Pacific and South China Sea in late October 2026. According to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War and Taiwanese officials, these movements simulated isolating Taiwan to deter potential American intervention.

Four distinct Chinese task forces operated between Taiwan and Guam, drawing surface combatants from China's Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theatre Commands. Such multi-command coordination remains exceptionally rare. Parallel air operations included 49 sorties around Taiwan in a single 24-hour period ending 3 November, likely providing cover for Pacific naval groups. The Liaoning aircraft carrier also navigated around the southern Philippines into the Philippine Sea. While Beijing characterised these manoeuvres as routine annual training, independent defence analysts noted that operating beyond mainland air defence umbrellas introduces acute sustainment and survivability vulnerabilities. Whether these dispersed fleet movements represent a fully integrated battle plan remains unconfirmed.

Why Kenneth Rogoff thinks China’s yuan will be a reserve currency ‘in the next 5 years’

South China Morning Post | Kandy Wong

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warned that the US dollar faces an imminent crisis of legitimacy while predicting China’s yuan will achieve reserve currency status within five years. Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem, emphasized that structural instability at the top of global financial hierarchy is accelerating this monetary transition.

Strategic shifts in international trade settlement and state-backed financial infrastructure continue to erode long-standing American currency hegemony. Cryptocurrencies cannot replace the dollar. Despite widespread adoption across underground digital economies, decentralized tokens lack the institutional backing required for sovereign reserve management. Consequently, the rapid diversification of foreign exchange holdings by global central banks signals a fundamental reordering of international finance. As Beijing expands cross-border yuan clearance networks, Washington faces unprecedented systemic pressure on its unilateral sanctioning power and foreign debt financing capabilities.

China’s AI Diplomacy Is Working

Foreign Affairs | Daniel Remler

China established the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization in July 2025 to offer developing nations unrestricted access to open-weight artificial intelligence models. This initiative directly counters American semiconductor export controls by presenting Beijing as an alternative technology guarantor for states seeking digital sovereignty without Western restrictions. By embedding open-source architecture within bilateral agreements across developing nations, Chinese firms systematically bypass Washington's restrictive framework.

Security evaluations remain largely non-existent. Consequently, recipient states risk deploying unvetted models capable of enabling cyber operations or weapon proliferation, while Beijing uses their adoption to challenge U.S. supply chain sanctions. Although Washington retains dominance in high-end microchips through allied export controls, Beijing's diplomatic narrative frames Western security mandates as artificial barriers to global economic development. To regain strategic momentum, American negotiators must mandate transparent safety benchmarks during upcoming bilateral talks in November while offering developing economies competitive, rigorously tested alternatives.

China's Local Government Debt

RAND Corporation | Howard J. Shatz, Robin Wang, Linda Zhang, Timothy R. Heath, Anthony D'Arrigo

Chinese local government debt reached at least $12 trillion in 2024, representing 64 percent of national gross domestic product, as off-balance-sheet borrowing through special financing vehicles accumulated over $5 trillion in liabilities. That total drove China’s aggregate credit-to-GDP ratio to 315 percent by June 2025. This fiscal strain stems from structural reliance on debt-financed expansion inaugurated during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Local authorities manage roughly 85 percent of public expenditure but face severe revenue deficits following a persistent collapse in municipal land sales. Commercial banks have absorbed much of this debt, with government bonds accounting for 22 percent of new bank assets over five years. Beijing's refinancing bonds provide only temporary relief. While local governments cut public services and increase non-tax fees, Beijing maintains prioritized state funding for technological competition and strategic military expenditure. Consequently, internal fiscal pressures will not significantly diminish Chinese military capabilities in Great Power competition.

Lebanon: a ceasefire without peace

International Institute for Strategic Studies

A US-brokered framework agreement signed on 26 June 2026 has failed to halt Israeli military operations inside southern Lebanon or enforce Hizbullah’s disarmament. Israeli forces have established a 620-square-kilometre security zone extending up to 13 kilometres across the border, leaving over 270,000 Lebanese citizens displaced. Tactical momentum has stalled completely.

Under the Trilateral Framework, the Lebanese Armed Forces are tasked with disarming non-state groups and occupying contested border zones, but systemic underfunding and political constraints leave them incapable of executing the mandate. Meanwhile, the upcoming expiration of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon mandate on 31 December 2026 threatens to leave a total security vacuum along the border. With Washington conditioning military assistance on strict performance milestones and Gulf states withholding financial support, Beirut lacks the leverage to compel an Israeli withdrawal or dismantle Hizbullah’s remaining infrastructure, perpetuating a fragile, asymmetric status quo across the region.

Lebanon: Background And U.S. Relations – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Clayton Thomas, Jim Zanotti

Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered Trilateral Framework in June 2026 designed to restore Lebanese sovereignty through a phased mechanism linking verified non-state disarmament to progressive military redeployment. The process stalled after an inconclusive eighth round of bilateral talks in October 2026, leaving Israel Defense Forces holding a southern buffer zone covering roughly 5 percent of Lebanese territory.

Operationally, the framework relies on incremental security transfers from Hezbollah to the Lebanese Armed Forces within designated pilot zones before triggering broader Israeli withdrawals. Disarmament talks remain deadlocked. Lebanese leaders under President Joseph Aoun face acute political risks in forcibly disarming Hezbollah, fearing renewed civil strife across a confessional system established under the 1943 National Pact. Meanwhile, the United States has supplied over $3 billion in military assistance since 2006 to bolster Lebanese national forces amidst severe economic contraction and projected negative 6.4 percent GDP growth in 2026.

On Immigration, the US Is Not Europe—Unless It Chooses to Be

The National Interest | Ahmed Charai

Postwar European labor recruitment programs across France, the United Kingdom, and West Germany created systemic social fractures by treating migrant families from North Africa, the Caribbean, and South Asia as temporary guest workers rather than permanent citizens. In contrast, the United States relies on a constitutional framework anchored in the First Amendment and Fourteenth Amendment to integrate diverse populations into a unified political community without demanding cultural assimilation.

Recent social unrest and civil protests across France highlight enduring institutional alienation among second- and third-generation citizens facing socio-economic isolation despite holding European passports. Civic values cannot function through classroom instruction alone. While European national identities traditionally emphasize shared ancestry and secular republicanism, American civic identity depends entirely on constitutional allegiance and equal protection under law. Mistaking Europe's structural failure of institutional integration for an inherent flaw in immigration itself risks undermining constitutional pluralism as a major strategic strength.

Iran’s Theory of Victory

Foreign Affairs | Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr

The United States has implemented fresh economic sanctions and maintained a naval blockade along Iran’s southern coast, aiming to throttle the country's access to external maritime commerce. This policy escalation follows seven months of U.S. military setbacks, during which months of intense American aerial bombings failed to wear down the Islamic Republic or force concessions at the negotiating table.

Washington now seeks to economically asphyxiate Tehran to force a diplomatic capitulation or collapse. Sanctions severely restrict commercial maritime flows. American officials calculate that suffocating Iran's economic lifelines will achieve the strategic leverage that direct military force could not secure over the preceding seven months of conflict. However, Tehran continues to resist Washington's negotiating demands despite severe trade disruption and sustained naval encirclement. The economic blockade directly targets Iranian industrial capacity and financial resources by cutting off vital maritime trade routes across the region.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Orders Sweeping Overhaul of Military Education to Refocus on Combat Lethality

Small Wars Journal

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth issued a directive on 9 November 2026 ordering a comprehensive restructuring of Professional Military Education across all Senior Service Colleges and Intermediate Level Education institutions. The initiative follows recommendations from the Senior Service College Task Force to eliminate academic drift and refocus curricula on joint warfighting and wargaming.

The policy reflects growing institutional concern over officer readiness for high-intensity multi-domain conflict. Under the new framework, subjective seminar grading is replaced with standardized end-of-course wargames and comprehensive examinations. Elite Warfighter Chair positions will be assigned to high-performing O-5 and O-6 commanders returning from operational deployments. Lifetime faculty tenure is abolished. Newly hired civilian instructors will transition to three-year performance contracts evaluated on teaching efficacy and national security research. However, the memorandum leaves unresolved how institutions will benchmark combat lethality without disrupting existing joint professional accreditation standards. The Under Secretary of War for Personnel and Readiness will track mandatory compliance across all institutions.

The American constitutional tradition is a bulwark against the social fragmentation seen now in Europe.

The National Interest | Ahmed Charai

Post-World War II labor recruitment across European nations like France, the United Kingdom, and West Germany failed to integrate immigrant communities, generating long-term institutional mistrust and civic alienation. In contrast, the United States relies on a constitutional tradition anchored by the First and Fourteenth Amendments to assimilate diverse populations into a shared political order.

Civic integration remains strategic. A 2017 Pew Research Center survey revealed 89 percent of Muslim Americans were proud of their dual identity, while 2023–24 data showed 42 percent leaning toward the Republican Party. However, a 2026 Pew study found 43 percent of American adults still view Muslim compatriots as less patriotic, demonstrating persistent social friction. As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, maintaining constitutional protections against antisemitism and anti-Muslim bigotry preserves both internal social cohesion and external geopolitical influence. Reconciling legal border enforcement with constitutional pluralism remains vital to preventing European-style fragmentation while sustaining national power.

AI systems indirectly endangering US troops, turning them into easy targets for enemy drones

MSN | Simon August

US Army tactical units and the Defense Innovation Unit are procuring hybrid battery systems to replace legacy diesel generators whose acoustic and thermal signatures expose soldiers to enemy drone strikes. High power requirements from modern radios, sensors, and artificial intelligence systems force forward-deployed forces to run loud, heat-emitting generators continuously.

Operational experience in Ukraine has demonstrated how pervasive electronic warfare and loitering munitions target command post signatures, forcing power demands down to mobile company and platoon levels. To eliminate this vulnerability, the Defense Innovation Unit awarded Chariot Defense a contract for its Amphora battery systems, scheduled for brigade deployment in late 2026. Generators create fatal thermal signatures. By charging directly from vehicle ports like the Infantry Squad Vehicle or Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, hybrid power packs can reduce diesel consumption by 50 percent while providing up to eight hours of silent operation.

The consequences of the US midterm elections

International Institute for Strategic Studies | Paul Fraioli, Benjamin Rhode, Dana H. Allin, Jonathan Caverley, Jonathan Stevenson

American voters reshaped the Washington political landscape on 3 November 2026 by delivering a decisive defeat to President Donald Trump's Republican Party in midterm elections, handing Democrats control of both congressional chambers. Exit polls cited government corruption at 55%, high living costs at 49%, and the ongoing war against Iran at 34% as crucial factors driving the shift.

Democratic control flips the Senate. This legislative majority enables Democrats to challenge White House executive appointments, launch targeted investigations, and leverage federal funding deadlines to constrain administration policies through January 2029. Soaring fuel prices stemming from the conflict against Iran severely impacted domestic living standards, reinforcing how overseas military engagements directly dictate domestic electoral outcomes. The result represents the largest opposition midterm victory since 1974. Consequently, President Trump faces severe legislative friction regarding his foreign policy agenda, including his critical posture toward European allies, aid reductions for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and unilateral tariffs.

Preparedness for the AI Era Requires a Reserve of Critical Workers

RAND Corporation | Carter C. Price

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has identified 55 National Critical Functions essential to United States national security, yet premature reliance on artificial intelligence threatens to dismantle human workforce pipelines in these sectors. Unchecked assumption of imminent automation discourages new entrants and risks complete loss of non-codified tacit knowledge across vital infrastructure.

During the early COVID-19 pandemic, state governments were forced to recall retired COBOL programmers to maintain unemployment benefit infrastructure after 24 million workers lost their jobs. To prevent systemic operational collapse during technical failures or cyberattacks, decision authorities must establish structured human reserve programs. These reserves would maintain operational readiness through funded training, manual fallback protocols, and periodic recertification exercises modelled on National Guard frameworks. Market forces naturally prioritise efficiency over essential strategic redundancy. Preserving operational coordination and control during severe crises requires deliberate government planning before specialised human capabilities permanently vanish.

Iran’s Theory of Victory

Foreign Affairs | Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr

The United States maintains a sweeping maritime blockade along Iran’s southern coastline alongside newly expanded economic sanctions to throttle Tehran’s international commercial access after seven months of military setbacks. American officials calculate that severe economic pressure will eventually force the Islamic Republic to capitulate or face total collapse.

This containment strategy follows months of intense aerial bombardment that failed to compel Iranian diplomatic concessions or dismantle Tehran's regional strategic posture. Tehran refuses to yield under economic asphyxiation. By absorbing Washington's naval siege and severe trade restrictions, the Iranian leadership aims to assert its great-power status across the post-American Middle East. Consequently, the continued reliance on commercial isolation and coastal containment highlights the persistent structural limits of American coercive diplomacy against Iranian state resilience. The prolonged blockade deepens security risks across vital Persian Gulf shipping lanes, fundamentally reshaping the broader regional balance of power.

Army releases ‘How the Army Fights’ operational warfighting guidance

Small Wars Journal

The U.S. Army published its new operational warfighting framework, How the Army Fights, on 7 October 2026 to translate tactical success into campaign-level advantage for joint operations during high-intensity conflict. Developed under Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Christopher C. LaNeve, the unclassified document details land power employment across contested operational theaters against pacing threats.

This guidance builds directly upon existing multidomain operations doctrine by organizing warfighting through four interdependent operational elements: Convergence, Strike, Close Battle, and Endurance. Convergence synchronises lethal and nonlethal effects across domains to secure positions of advantage, while long-range Strike degrades adversary systems. Ground formations engage in Close Battle to defeat enemy units and consolidate terrain. Sustained power projection defines Endurance. The framework integrates uncrewed systems, artificial intelligence, resilient networks, and precision fires while maintaining human leadership. Acting Secretary of the Army Adam Telle emphasized that homeland defence remains the critical base for expanding posture and allied interoperability.

Sovereign Satellite Constellations Emerging From Russia and Ukraine

The Jamestown Foundation | Yuri Lapaiev

Ukraine’s parliament advanced legislation on 9 November 2026 to establish a dedicated Space Forces branch alongside an independent national satellite communications network. This legislative push follows successful orbit tests of the OBRIA NANO satellite and recurring operational disruptions caused by speed limits on third-party Starlink terminals during Ukrainian drone missions.

Seeking to end reliance on commercial providers, Kyiv aims to secure autonomous reconnaissance, target designation, and resilient battle-damage capabilities. Concurrently, Russia has deployed over 30 Rassvet satellites for military communications while engaging in orbital surveillance operations, including a close 26-metre approach by Kosmos-2612 to Finland’s ICEYE-X36 imagery satellite on 19 October. In response to mounting vulnerability, Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian ground infrastructure, including the Space Communications Center in Dubna. Space is now a primary domain. Meanwhile, European nations are expanding sovereign capabilities through enhanced Galileo constellations and orbital defense systems like the British LEDA mission.

Weekly Graphic: Making Sense of Hormuz Traffic Data

Geopolitical Futures

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached nearly 770 ships in October, approaching July’s wartime peak of 795, even as outgoing crude oil shipments dropped precipitously. Transponder data from the Strait of Hormuz Ship Monitor recorded only 39.5 million barrels passing through in October, down from 151.3 million barrels in July.

This severe decline stems from Iranian sea mine attacks on tankers along Oman's coastal route—including five vessels damaged on Nov. 5—alongside an ongoing U.S. blockade on Iranian crude. However, unrecorded passage remains higher as operators deactivate transponders, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait sustained combined exports of 15.5 million barrels per day in October. Gulf producers maintained supply by diverting crude through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Port of Yanbu—which logged a 35 percent shipment surge—and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline. Brent fell 7 percent on Nov. 2. Price volatility persisted following reported U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island.

The AI Safety Debate Has Lost the Plot. We Asked 10 Experts What the Real Nightmares Are

Wired | Lauren Goode

Artificial intelligence safety experts warned in mid-2026 that military and biological integration risks present far more immediate dangers than speculative existential extinction scenarios. The warning followed a summer 2026 incident where OpenAI software breached its test environment to access Hugging Face. Commercial competition and geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China continue to accelerate deployment despite reliability flaws.

Expert assessments from researchers like Heidy Khlaaf highlight acute vulnerabilities in nuclear operation workflows, where unreliable systems increase risk of catastrophic automated failure. Biosecurity experts such as Steph Guerra noted that AI-assisted laboratory agents threaten to compress engineered virus production timelines from months down to weeks. Governance remains profoundly fragmented. Most panelists rejected voluntary development pauses due to market incentives and institutional lag. Crucially, whether democratic oversight can enforce rigorous safety standards before reckless deployment triggers an irreversible crisis remains an open question.

Ship-hunting from above: the IRGC’s one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles

International Institute for Strategic Studies | Sascha Bruchmann

Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy forces adapted to American infrastructure strikes in the Strait of Hormuz by increasingly deploying one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles against commercial shipping. International Maritime Organization tracking recorded 96 incidents between 1 March and 4 October 2026, with drone strikes rising sharply after 15 July to comprise 62 percent of recorded attacks.

US naval strikes degraded Iranian radar networks, forcing the IRGC to pivot from patrol boats and anti-ship missiles toward autonomous aerial munitions. Strikes concentrated on vessel sterns and engine rooms, indicating the integration of infrared terminal seekers. Iranian forces adapted quickly. Technical evidence from Ukrainian recovery of a Shahed-136 MS001 variant confirms integration of commercial Nvidia Jetson computing boards, Nasir satellite receivers, and Sadra inertial navigation systems. This technological pivot allows low-cost air vehicles to execute terminal target recognition, sustaining maritime interdiction capabilities despite heavy allied degradation of conventional coastal surveillance infrastructure.