Alex Leeds Matthews, Matt Stiles Tom Nagorski, and Justin Rood
Two months ago, the Kremlin narrowed its mission in Ukraine — implicitly acknowledging that its attempt to take the capital, Kyiv, had failed, and justifying decisions to move virtually all its troops and heavy weaponry to the eastern part of the country known as the Donbas. It would be a vastly smaller military mission.
As Grid’s Joshua Keating reported last month, the fight that has raged in the east since then has been bloody and difficult for both sides. But in this more regionally focused war, Russia has made gains. And Wednesday, the New York Times put a number to the Russian success, estimating that Russia now controls almost 75 percent of the Donbas region. Prior to the war, it held roughly 30 percent.
In the early days of the war, there were regular peace negotiations and an assumption in many European capitals — Kyiv included — that Ukraine would have to surrender land to compel the Russians to end their assault.
Three months later, Russian missteps and a fierce and effective resistance have stiffened Ukrainian resolve. That was reflected in a poll released Tuesday by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, which found that 82 percent of Ukrainians don’t want to give up any land to Russia in exchange for a deal. Only 10 percent said it would be worth surrendering territory in order to achieve peace.
Grid’s reporting is based on the best available data and reporting; in some cases, we explained a range of figures or the reason we chose one over another. We originally published this document on March 24 and will update it every Thursday as long as the war persists.
Civilians killed: more than 4,000
The actual toll is much higher, the Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights conceded. Officials in Mariupol said the toll there alone is more than five times what the U.N. suggests. Most of the deaths have been caused by shelling and rocket attacks on civilian areas, the United Nations observed. (updated June 1; source)
Ukrainian soldiers killed: 2,500-11,000
In an April 15 interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimated Ukrainian military losses at 2,500 to 3,000. U.S. intelligence officials put the number higher, at 5,500 to 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since the invasion. (updated April 20; source, source) This week, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers a day, which suggests the overall figure is far higher.
Russian soldiers killed: 1,351-27,000
Ukraine has raised its estimate of Russian soldiers killed in the conflict to 27,000. NATO has estimated Russian troop losses at between 7,000 and 15,000. Russian officials earlier claimed 1,351 troop losses, though spokesman Dimitry Peskov said there have been “significant losses of troops, and it’s a huge tragedy for us.” (updated May 25; source, source, source)
Russian generals killed: 8-13
A retired Russian general was reportedly shot down over Luhansk — by Ukrainian counts the 13th Russian general to be killed in Ukraine. Previously, the Defense Intelligence Agency reported that between eight and 10 Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine. Grid’s Tom Nagorski and Joshua Keating previously reported on the possible explanations for this “inconceivable” toll: poor communications and command-and-control structures within the Russian military. (updated May 25; source, source)
Total displaced Ukrainians: nearly 15 million
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported 6.8 million fleeing the country. The International Organization for Migration’s latest survey of internally displaced Ukrainians, in early May, found that the number had surpassed 8 million. (updated June 1; source, source)
Refugees from Ukraine: more than 6.8 million
Internally displaced Ukrainians: more than 8 million
An overview of the violence
Attacks on healthcare facilities: 251
Global food markets: Wheat prices increase 22 percent since invasion
Global food markets: Fertilizer prices increase 9 percent since invasion
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