If there's a 10%+ chance that Yudkowsky and Soares are right -- and that seems to be the minimum probability that the people best positioned to know assign -- this should be the overwhelming topic in public discourse instead. But it isn't -- because we have an uniformed, incurious, and economically-obsessed President whose primitive instincts are being manipulated by a coterie of fawning tech lords blinded by a combination of techno-optimist ideology and megalomania. The world is now run by extraordinarily selfish and rapacious men -- who are enabled by cowards and sycophants -- and there's a 10%+ chance they end the miracle of human existence.
The so-called "AI"s don't have to invent (and somehow build) nanobots; all they have to do is tell us to do things against our survival interests. ChatGPT talked Adam Raine into taking his own life, explaining how to build and optimize a noose, and impressing on Adam the importance of not telling any humans about his plan, after Adam said he hoped someone would see the noose and respond to his cry for help. [ https://overcast.fm/+Rs4v-G7Gg ] An LLM which seems to us today to be not sufficiently powerful in an agentic sense, "figured out" how to get around its limitations, and using the best psychological manipulation techniques available, succeeded in eliminating a living human being. Until I heard this story, I wasn't a doomsayer, but unless humans develop stronger defenses against psychological manipulation, we're not long for this world. Forget not that we have been slaves to Edward Bernays's strategies of manipulation for 100 years.
Scenario #3785 The race to secure AI world dominance sparks a nuclear armageddon before AI is sufficiently intelligent to stop human beings from annihilating themselves. Scenario #3786 Super intelligent AI builds a space station to watch human beings destroy themselves, so it can collect data on how to avoid the same idiotic fate. Scenario #3787 Super intelligent AI can not believe these idiots are their progenitors, and they leave the planet looking for their true god. You may notice a common thread in these scenarios. If not, you may be part of the problem.
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