4 January 2026

India-Pakistan armed conflict likely in 2026 due to 'heightened terrorist activity', warns US think tank


India and Pakistan could face the possibility of seeing a "renewed" armed conflict in 2026 due to "heightened terrorist activity" according to a report by a US think tank that surveyed American foreign policy experts. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) dubbed the chances of armed conflict as "moderate likelihood" that it could have a "moderate impact" on American interests. It also stated that the Donald Trump administration had "sought to end" the conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad.

There is a "moderate likelihood" of a "renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity", the CFR said in its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report.

The CFR report also pointed that Pakistan could face another flashpoint with Afghanistan.

There is a moderate likelihood of "renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks", the report mentioned.

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