Iran and the United States face a persistent deadlock over divergent strategic red lines, as Washington seeks to negotiate Iran’s missile capabilities and regional influence, which Tehran considers non-negotiable national security components. This impasse has heightened tensions and risks military confrontation. A pathway to overcome this involves applying lessons from Cold War arms control, where major powers regulated competition without eliminating adversary power.
For Iran-US relations, this means focusing on the scope and limits of military capabilities, addressing quantitative and qualitative indicators. Crucially, any limitations must preserve Iran's deterrence, developed amidst restricted advanced weapon access and pervasive US military presence, and maintain regional power balance. The US "Chicken Game" strategy of simultaneous pressure risks miscalculation. A mutually agreed military limitations mechanism could prevent deadlocks and enhance Iran's international standing. Challenges include ensuring compliance, exemplified by the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and achieving internal Iranian consensus. Success requires defining rules for managing disagreements, not forcing concessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment