23 June 2026

The Long Shadow of the Iran War: Trump’s Most Consequential Foreign Policy Mistake

Foreign Affairs  |  Ian Bremmer, Firas Maksad

President Donald Trump's announcement on June 14, 2026, ending the war in Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, brought significant relief to countries worldwide. This negotiated settlement, while deemed in the United States' interest, demonstrably fell far short of Washington's ambitious strategic objectives for the conflict. After nearly four months of intense fighting, critical concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program, its advanced ballistic missile arsenal, and its pervasive support for proxies across the Middle East remain largely unresolved.

The Iranian regime, which the Trump administration had explicitly aimed to change, persists in power, potentially poised for further regional influence. This outcome is characterized as Trump’s most consequential foreign policy mistake, casting a "long shadow" that signifies enduring regional instability, unfulfilled strategic goals, and a failure to fundamentally alter the Middle East's geopolitical balance.

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