21 June 2026

Why the U.S.-Iran Deal Might Work, and Why It Might Not

The New York Times  |  Lara Jakes

The preliminary deal between Iran and the U.S. pauses nearly four months of hostilities that have killed thousands of people and sent global energy prices soaring. Despite cautious optimism, experts remain skeptical that this U.S.-Iran agreement can survive the next 60-day round of negotiations for a final deal.

The terms of the framework have not been released, and analysts on Monday suggested it is possible, even likely, that negotiators on either side have interpreted the tentative agreement differently. The article examines the critical reasons why the deal might succeed and, conversely, why it might not, emphasizing that the toughest issues lie ahead. The potential for collapse remains high, necessitating careful navigation of complex, unresolved issues during the upcoming negotiation phase to secure lasting peace.

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