Can IMEC Survive the Iran War?

National Interest | Harsh V. Pant, and Dharminder Singh Kaleka

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) faces severe operational paralysis as the 2026 Iran war and Houthi maritime strikes disrupt critical trade chokepoints. This vulnerability forces a shift toward a hard-security architecture to safeguard the multimodal route. Consequently, participating nations are transitioning from purely commercial planning to active naval cooperation.

The initiative was originally designed to bypass vulnerable maritime arteries like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. However, the northern rail segment through Jordan to the Israeli port of Haifa remains blocked due to stalled Arab-Israeli normalization and Saudi Arabia's insistence on a Palestinian state. To counter these political and physical bottlenecks, a defensive maritime arc linking India, Israel, and Greece is emerging to protect critical infrastructure, undersea cables, and energy pipelines. While bilateral trade between India and the United Arab Emirates exceeded $101 billion in fiscal year 2025–26, the corridor's long-term viability depends on establishing robust security frameworks and digital interoperability to withstand ongoing geopolitical shocks.

Comment

India's maritime strategy is expanding beyond the Indian Ocean into the Mediterranean. Access to the Souda Bay naval facility in Greece provides the Indian Navy with a vital logistical node. This footprint complements New Delhi's commercial presence at the Israeli port of Haifa, securing the projected IMEC sea lanes. Anchoring this trilateral arc allows India to project hard power directly into European waters to protect its digital and energy assets.

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