How Will AI Affect Cyber Operations?

RAND Corporation | Michael Sulmeyer

Artificial intelligence, particularly agentic systems capable of autonomous goal pursuit, is poised to significantly expand the strategic potential of cyber operations. By alleviating the persistent constraints on expert-level human capacity, these emerging technologies will enable state actors to execute highly sophisticated cyberattacks at an unprecedented global scale and operational speed.

Historically, cyber weapons have functioned primarily as tactical instruments because attackers struggled to predict operational effects, navigate complex classification structures, and maintain the specialized workforce required for sustained campaigns. While traditional digital operations rarely achieved broad strategic outcomes, the integration of autonomous software agents fundamentally alters this dynamic. These systems can dynamically adapt to defensive countermeasures in real time, bypassing human-in-the-loop bottlenecks. Consequently, the rapid proliferation of these advanced offensive capabilities will likely intensify interstate competition in the digital domain, lowering the entry barrier for highly disruptive strategic campaigns targeting critical national infrastructure.

Comment

The transition from human-led cyber intrusion to autonomous agentic operations challenges the foundational tenets of U.S. Cyber Command’s doctrine of persistent engagement. Traditional friction in digital conflict relied on the slow, manual craft of human operators to discover vulnerabilities and write bespoke exploits. Automating these processes through machine-learning models compresses the operational timeline, rendering manual defensive triage obsolete. This shift forces a re-evaluation of active defence concepts, as automated payloads can execute multi-stage network penetrations before human defenders can authorise a response.

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