America’s Attrition Trap: The U.S. Military Needs to Build Up Its Endurance

Foreign Affairs | Staff Writer

The United States military faces a critical strategic challenge as modern conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East shift toward protracted wars of attrition. Adversaries increasingly exploit gaps in Western industrial capacity and technological adaptation to prolong hostilities, directly targeting American political will. Historically, military power was measured by nominal assets, but contemporary battlefields demand rapid, continuous regeneration of high-consumption materiel.

In Ukraine, rapid technological feedback loops and electronic countermeasures quickly neutralize tactical innovations, rendering breakthroughs elusive. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed proxy networks impose high operational costs using inexpensive drones, exposing the limits of costly Western air defenses. Endurance dictates victory. Ultimately, these military efforts remain disconnected from clear political end states, leaving attrition as the default strategy. To counter this, Washington is exploring broader pressure campaigns like Operation Economic Outcast to target adversary financial networks and disrupt their long-term sustainability on a global scale.

Comment

The reliance on peacetime manufacturing models limits the rapid scaling of NATO-standard munitions during high-intensity conflicts. At the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, production lines for 155mm artillery shells face structural bottlenecks that prevent immediate surges in output. This vulnerability exposes the friction between Ukrainian battlefield consumption and rigid American industrial lead times. Consequently, Scranton's monthly output remains decoupled from the daily expenditure rates observed in Donbas.

This industrial lag stems from a highly consolidated supply chain dependent on single-source suppliers for critical precursors like nitrocellulose. For instance, the domestic reliance on a single military propellant plant in Radford restricts the scaling of modular artillery charges. Ultimately, Radford's capacity limits the operational utility of the M777 howitzers deployed in active theatres.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant cannot resolve its upstream supply chain dependencies, what alternative industrial mechanisms can Western militaries deploy to sustain high-rate artillery operations in protracted conflicts?

The pattern suggests that relying solely on domestic state-owned facilities is increasingly unviable, pointing toward the necessity of co-production agreements with allied nations. Establishing redundant assembly lines in Europe or the Indo-Pacific could distribute the industrial burden and bypass localized supply bottlenecks. However, this trajectory indicates that regulatory hurdles like export control frameworks will remain the primary obstacle to such integration.

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