The Pentagon must prepare for battles around the moon: Joint Chiefs chair

Defense One | Thomas Novelly

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine warned that United States forces must prepare for potential military conflict in cislunar space and on the lunar surface. This rhetorical shift coincides with recent disclosures by the Air Force and Space Force regarding newly deployed orbital weapons, raising urgent questions about operational readiness and legal frameworks.

Rapid Chinese advancements in cislunar space, including relay satellites and robotic missions on the far side of the moon, drive these American preparations. To counter these developments, the 18th and 19th Space Defense Squadrons have divided the cislunar monitoring mission. Legal frameworks remain highly ambiguous. While the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 bans military bases on celestial bodies, it does not restrict orbital operations or clarify the rules for non-kinetic space weapons. Consequently, the Senate Armed Services Committee has mandated a formal assessment of military space law requirements in the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act.

Comment

The expansion of the 18th Space Defense Squadron's monitoring to cislunar space exposes a critical deficit in international space law. While the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 prohibits celestial military bases, its provisions do not govern cislunar transit. This regulatory vacuum allows the deployment of US and Chinese orbital electronic warfare systems without technically violating international accords. Consequently, the DoD Law of War Manual offers no clear guidance on when a non-kinetic orbital disruption constitutes an act of war.

To address this, the Senate Armed Services Committee's provision in the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act seeks to formalise military space law requirements. This legislative push aims to establish a dedicated legal organisation within the Space Force to interpret rules of engagement. However, these domestic legal interpretations will still clash with the lack of bilateral consensus between the US Space Force and the People's Liberation Army regarding lunar operations.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 remains unamended, which mechanism carries more weight in preventing cislunar conflict—the unilateral legal frameworks developed under the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, or informal bilateral norms established directly between Washington and Beijing?

The trajectory indicates that unilateral mandates under the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act will dictate near-term operational boundaries for the US Space Force. However, long-term stability in cislunar space will likely depend on de facto bilateral understandings between Washington and Beijing, similar to Cold War-era maritime agreements. Without these mutual constraints, unilateral legal interpretations risk being dismissed as mere domestic policy by competing powers.

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