28 September 2026

What the Iran War Is Teaching China About US Power

National Interest | Gedaliah Afterman, Caroline Dibble

Six months of conflict under Operation Epic Fury have tested American global commitments by stretching US military resources across both the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. While US forces degraded Iranian capabilities, sustained attacks using Shahed drones and ballistic missiles caused an estimated $400 million in damage to Naval Support Activity Bahrain and left critical interceptor stockpiles depleted.

This dual-theater strain forced the redeployment of carrier strike groups and delayed a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, creating political uncertainty among key Asian allies including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Meanwhile, Beijing is closely studying American staying power, noting how Iran leveraged maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and managed energy supply shocks. Consequently, China now gains diplomatic leverage from Washington's military burden, signaling that future Indo-Pacific deterrence depends heavily on the unyielding reliability of American security commitments.

Comment

Operation Epic Fury exposed critical inventory bottlenecks across US missile-defence architectures, notably through the expenditure of approximately 1,500 Patriot interceptors over five months. This rapid consumption rate directly degrades theater-level depth in the Western Pacific, where equivalent air-defence batteries remain scarce against expanding PLA Rocket Force inventories.

Strategic Question for Discussion
How does the accelerated depletion of Patriot interceptors during Operation Epic Fury alter the operational calculations for air-defence prioritisation between Central Command and Indo-Pacific Command?
The pattern suggests that Washington will increasingly rely on allied host-nation contributions to absorb initial strike waves. This shift points to a growing structural friction between global power projection and regional inventory sustainability.
Share your assessment in the comments below.