Confronting Russia’s High-Velocity Arsenal: European Challenges and Solutions

Ifri | Fabian Hoffmann

Russian high-velocity ballistic and hypersonic missiles present an immediate threat to European military and civilian infrastructure, demanding a rapid evolution in NATO's defensive architecture. These advanced systems, including the 9M723 Iskander and Kh-47 Kinzhal, bypass traditional air defenses through depressed trajectories and terminal maneuverability, leaving European states highly vulnerable to coordinated saturation strikes.

This vulnerability stems from the operational difficulty of tracking and intercepting weapons that combine sustained hypersonic speeds with unpredictable midcourse course corrections. Interceptor scarcity remains a critical vulnerability. Consequently, relying solely on passive missile defense is economically and operationally unsustainable against an adversary capable of generating mass. To establish credible deterrence, European defense planning must integrate sovereign, cost-efficient interceptors with a robust conventional counterstrike capability to threaten calibrated retaliation. This dual-track posture balances active interception with offensive systems capable of targeting Russian launch platforms before they can deploy their high-velocity payloads.

Comment

The deployment of the 9M723 ballistic missile via the Iskander-M system exposes a fundamental vulnerability in European air defence doctrine. Traditional interception models rely on predictable parabolic trajectories, which are rendered obsolete by the depressed flight paths and terminal manoeuvring of these high-velocity assets. This operational reality shifts the defensive burden from passive interception to active, pre-emptive counterforce targeting. Consequently, the reliance on terminal-phase interceptors like the Aster 30 is insufficient against sustained, high-volume salvos.

This doctrinal shift drives a restructuring of theatre-level command and control architectures to compress the sensor-to-shooter cycle. Integrating real-time satellite tracking with deep-strike assets becomes the primary mechanism to neutralise mobile Iskander-M launchers before missile egress. Ultimately, the cost-exchange ratio of depleting Aster 30 stockpiles against mass-produced 9M723 missiles forces European commanders to transition toward offensive denial strategies.

Strategic Question for Discussion

How would the integration of real-time satellite tracking alter the survivability of mobile Iskander-M launchers during the initial phases of a high-intensity European conflict?

The available evidence points toward a significant reduction in launcher survivability if real-time satellite tracking is paired with automated target-acquisition networks. However, the rapid displacement capability of the Iskander-M system suggests that sensor latency would need to be virtually non-existent to achieve successful interdiction before launch. Consequently, the operational outcome depends heavily on the integration of low-Earth orbit surveillance constellations with long-range precision strike assets.

Share your assessment in the comments below.

To read in details click here