Goodbye, ‘China Plus One’: The Real Change in US China Policy

The Diplomat | Xin Wang

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for a high-profile state visit in Washington on September 23, 2026, signaling a fundamental shift in bilateral relations. This diplomatic reception at Joint Base Andrews drew sharp criticism from bipartisan Critics who warned that the elaborate pageantry would reward a strategic rival.

The welcoming ceremony, featuring a state dinner and a symbolic bald eagle sculpture, represents a departure from previous economic containment strategies. Bilateral ties are changing. Underneath the formal pageantry, Washington and Beijing are moving away from the "China Plus One" supply chain diversification model toward direct, restructured economic engagement. This transition could redefine global trade networks and alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region as both nations navigate this new policy direction. Analysts suggest that the diplomatic reset may lead to bilateral trade agreements that bypass traditional multilateral frameworks.

Comment

Washington's pivot toward direct bilateral engagement with Beijing dilutes the strategic cohesion of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Regional partners like Vietnam and the Philippines, having aligned their supply chains with American diversification mandates, now face sudden policy exposure. This bilateralism bypasses the collective economic security structures established under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

The mechanism of this disruption operates through the sudden devaluation of friend-shoring incentives previously guaranteed by the US International Development Finance Corporation. When the United States prioritises direct accommodation over multilateral standards, multinational corporations recalibrate investments away from secondary hubs like Hanoi's Hoa Lac High-Tech Park. Consequently, the integrated supply-chain security envisioned by the 2023 IPEF Supply Chain Agreement loses its operational utility.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Washington continues to bypass multilateral structures in favour of direct bilateral deals with Beijing, how can the 2023 IPEF Supply Chain Agreement maintain any credible enforcement mechanism against economic coercion?

The trajectory indicates that the 2023 IPEF Supply Chain Agreement will likely devolve into a symbolic framework rather than an active regulatory tool. Without the anchor of preferential US market access or binding tariff reductions, regional signatories will have little incentive to enforce costly supply-chain compliance measures. Consequently, individual member states are expected to pursue independent hedging strategies with Beijing to secure their own economic interests.

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