6 January 2018

What If... Conceivable Crises: Unpredictable in 2017, Unmanageable in 2020?


This collection of essays focuses on eleven scenarios that may appear unlikely today, but which could come to pass in the near future. The primary aim of each text is to highlight the EU’s current strengths and weaknesses, specifically in its decision-making processes and crisis management structures. Some of the potential crises include 1) a repeat intervention by Russia in Ukraine; 2) the disintegration of Bosnia-Herzegovina; 3) the so-called Islamic State taking over an enfeebled African state; 4) the toppling of Cameroon’s government; 5) Japan acquiring nuclear weapons; and 6) India and Pakistan stumbling into another armed conflict.

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Florence Gaub, Daniel Fiott, Julia Lisiecka, Zoran Nechev, Annelies Pauwels, Roderick Parkes, Julia Lisiecka, Aleksandra Tor, Alice Vervaeke, Patryk Pawlak, Eva Pejsova, John-Joseph Wilkins, (Editor: Florence Gaub) 


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