Jakub Grygiel
At the beginning of 2022, the future of Europe looked to be in the hands of Berlin and Moscow. They were becoming Europe’s arbiters. But Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed the continent’s geopolitical map: The Germans and Russians are out, the British and Poles are rising, and the Americans are back—at least for now.
German economic might shaped the lives of eurozone countries, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Berlin’s decisions—on immigration, energy, fiscal policy, and diplomacy—were criticized, but few Europeans could afford to outright oppose the continent’s largest economy. At the same time, to Europe’s east, Russia had reinserted itself into European politics through a combination of military power, internal meddling, and energy supplies. Following a long-standing tradition of keeping good relations with Russia, German leaders were eager to do business with Moscow. Germany became Gazprom’s best customer, supplied the Russian economy and military with critical technology, and hoped Moscow would reciprocate with good behavior.
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