Timothy Wright
India’s Strategic Forces Command conducted a test firing of the Agni-IV intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on 6 June 2022, according to the government’s Press Information Bureau. The missile was launched from India’s missile testing site on Abdul Kalam Island, Odisha.
The Agni-IV is a mobile two-stage solid-fuel system, with an estimated range of up to 4,000 kilometres. If launched from northeastern India, the missile is capable of striking targets across Pakistan and most of China (excluding its northeastern regions). The Agni-IV reportedly has a circular error probable (CEP) of less than 100 metres. CEP is a measure of a weapon system’s accuracy and is defined as the radius into which a missile, projectile or bomb will land at least half the time. The Agni-IV will most likely be equipped with a nuclear payload.
Earlier statements from the Press Information Bureau discussing previous Agni-IV launches have described these as flight tests or as part of a user trial, suggesting the system was still being developed. The most recent announcement, however, stated that the test was a ‘successful training launch’. This suggests that the launch may have been conducted for the benefit of the crew operating the system rather than to test the parameters of an experimental design. The missile was also launched at night, which might have been done to develop crew readiness.
Given these factors, the Agni-IV is probably now entering service with the Strategic Forces Command. Although the Agni-IV will provide India with a more capable nuclear deterrent against China, it is unlikely India will field significant numbers of these missiles for some time given frequent delays to the system’s development and multiple competing projects run by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the body in charge of military research and development.
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