Andrew Radin, Khrystyna Holynska, Cheyenne Tretter, Thomas Van Bibber
Space-based services and the disruption of these services have played an unprecedented role in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The role of space in the war offers important lessons for how the United States must prepare for events in the space domain in potential future conflicts. In this report, RAND researchers offer an open-source account of space activities throughout the war and extract relevant lessons for the national security community.
This report is organized along three mission areas that proved most significant in shaping the war in Ukraine: satellite communications (SATCOM); positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT); and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), including overhead imagery or radar. For each mission area, RAND researchers identified the prewar capabilities within Ukraine and Russia, specified how these capabilities were employed or disrupted in the war, and determined any associated challenges or issues for the key stakeholders in the conflict. They relied on publicly available information, including published statements by Western, Ukrainian, and Russian officials; literature from Russian and Ukrainian defense enterprises; and open-source reporting.
Key Findings
Key space services will likely be disrupted in future conflicts. Cyberattacks, Global Positioning System jamming, and other threats have significantly shaped the war, and the growing sophistication of both Russian and Chinese counterspace capabilities only increases the likelihood that the United States and its allies might face similar disruptions in a future conflict.
The widespread availability of space services increases the transparency of the battlefield. The accessibility of commercial imagery or released national imagery will likely make future large-scale conflicts relatively more visible in open sources and to wider audiences.
Commercial space services bring value and vulnerability. Ukraine’s ability to leverage Western commercial services enhanced its warfighting and reduced the need to field its own capabilities. Hesitations about SpaceX highlights how reliability concerns make countries cautious about depending on a single commercial provider.
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